Deutsche Bank’s most recent client survey suggests that investor anxiety over 2026 is dominated by two themes: the risk of an artificial intelligence bubble and concerns that the next US Fed chair may prioritize President Trump’s agenda through aggressive interest rate cuts.
The survey shows that as many as 57 percent of respondents view the “bursting of an AI bubble” as the single greatest risk to financial markets in 2026. This marks the first time in Deutsche Bank’s past surveys that such a large proportion of respondents have expressed concern over a single risk. Compared with the late1990s dot-com bubble, the potential risks associated with today’s AI bubble are more concentrated in US technology stocks linked to AI. However, given the extremely high market capitalization of leading AI companies, any systemic shock affecting these stocks could be even more destructive than the 2008 global financial crisis. Admittedly, widespread concern about an AI bubble could indicate that the market has not yet reached a breaking point. Even so, with companies such as OpenAI still required to raise hundreds of billions of dollars to sustain operations, the downside risks associated with an AI bubble remain significant.
The Deutsche Bank survey also indicates that the second most concerning issue for respondents is the possibility that a new Fed chair might align with President Trump in implementing an aggressive rate-cutting agenda, potentially triggering market volatility. Perhaps most striking, respondents appear more troubled by the prospect of a politically compliant Fed chair, than by the promise of lower rates themselves. The survey suggests that fears of eroding Fed independence now outweigh the traditional market preference for easy money – a dynamic that may help explain Trump’s reluctance to settle on his next Fed chair.
That said, the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee can, in principle, prevent a Fed chair appointed by President Trump from tilting too far toward White House preferences at the expense of the Federal Reserve’s independence. However, if excessive interference from the White House were to lead to visible internal divisions within the Fed, market sentiment would likely be adversely affected.
Andrew Wong is a veteran independent commentator
