China’s BYD aims to sell up to 1.6 million vehicles abroad in 2026, Citi says

Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD (1211) aims to sell up to 1.6 million vehicles abroad next year, doubling down on overseas expansions with high double-digit growth from 2025, Citi said in a report on Tuesday.

Overseas sales guidance of 1.5-1.6 million vehicles is up from an expected 900,000 to 1 million vehicles sold outside China in 2025, "with growth driven by new model launches," the Citi note said, citing a meeting with BYD management on Tuesday.

BYD's "overseas sales mix is balanced across different regions, with Europe, North America and ASEAN accounting for one-third of total 2025 overseas sales respectively," according to Citi.

BYD management also expects a decline in capital expenditure in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, followed by a significant decline in 2026, "considering vehicle and battery production capacity should be able to meet demand," the report said.

BYD didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Citi didn't mention an overall BYD sales target for 2026. The automaker reduced the 2025 target by 16 percent to 4.6 million vehicles after its sales at home fell in recent months.

BYD, which last month reported its biggest quarterly profit fall in over four years, has shipped about 20 percent of total vehicles overseas so far this year, double the 2024 level.

BYD is facing stiffer competition in China from local rivals such as Geely (0175) and Leapmotor (9863) in the budget car segment.

BYD has built at least eight mega factories across China in the past five years. The company has been building overseas factories for local assembly in countries including Hungary and Brazil and is planning a third plant for Europe with Spain as the top candidate, Reuters has reported previously.

Reuters