Ka Ying Rising’s moment of truth: why 'winning ugly' might be the key in The Everest

When the tough sprinter Aerovelocity rounded the turn at Chukyo in the 2015 Group 1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen, his lack of balance and footwork wasn’t quite as bad as a baby deer on ice — a giraffe in roller skates, maybe. Whatever the case, the slippery rain-soaked surface certainly wasn’t the rock-hard Sha Tin runway the sprinter had become accustomed to.

Zac Purton’s poised and patient ride, keeping his horse balanced before asking for maximum effort, helped Paul O’Sullivan’s galloper to a famous victory away from home. It wasn’t pretty, but Aerovelocity got it done. Tenacity, will-to-win and versatility can count as much as brilliance when it comes to winning on the road — especially for Hong Kong horses leaving the comfort of Sha Tin.

The great Australian sprinter Black Caviar’s crowning moment was meant to be her trip to Royal Ascot for the 2012 G1 Diamond Jubilee. She had been dominating her races in similar fashion to Ka Ying Rising — in fact, trainer David Hayes has made the comparison more than once. Both horses boast ultra-high cruising speeds that drain the stamina of their rivals mid-race before delivering a late, punishing burst from reserves few can reach.

Racing before Queen Elizabeth II and chasing her 22nd straight win, Black Caviar didn’t show her customary kick. Then Luke Nolen misjudged the finish in what could have been one of the most calamitous mistakes ever by a jockey in a major race. She held on by a head from the fast-closing Moonlight Cloud. It was later revealed she was carrying an injury, and the rain-softened ground didn’t help. Nolen’s blunder nearly did her in. They all would have been convenient excuses — but she wasn’t beaten. The great mare retired with a 25-for-25 record.

Romantic Warrior’s 2023 Cox Plate victory began a six-month tour de force by Hong Kong’s modern-day champion. Some of his wins were dominant, but that one was all grit — a nose decision in a race nobody thought he’d won at first glance. It was one of just two wins by a Hong Kong-trained runner from 50 starts in Australia, the other coming two decades earlier with Cape Of Good Hope in the 2005 G1 Australia Stakes.

Australia’s quarantine restrictions are unforgiving. Ka Ying Rising has been away from his stable and regular training routine for more than a month. Hayes and Purton have both spoken about how the horse’s ability to handle the intensity of raceday at Randwick — 50,000 sun-baked, beer-soaked fans in a carnival atmosphere — will be critical.

Those are all understandable and convenient excuses if he doesn’t win, not to mention the quality of opposition he faces. If rain arrives — as it so often does for a big race in Sydney — the softer surface could become the biggest obstacle of all.

The Ka Ying Rising highlight reel is fun to watch: record-breaking times, spectacular margins eased down on the line while Purton blows kisses and points at the infield camera. But with the factors working against him tomorrow at Randwick, this could be a day when winning ugly is what’s required from a horse accustomed to getting things his own way.

A measure of a horse is sometimes in how they fight when conditions aren’t perfect. Aerovelocity skated his way through Chukyo. Black Caviar limped through Ascot. Romantic Warrior clawed his way to victory at Moonee Valley.

This looms as a defining moment for Ka Ying Rising — and for the men behind him. Hayes, the optimist, and Purton, the perfectionist. Tomorrow, we might find out if Ka Ying Rising can fight as well as he flies.