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Citigroup slashed its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, saying weakening investor appetite, negative exchange-traded fund flows and a lack of progress on US digital asset legislation have hurt the outlook for the two largest cryptocurrencies.
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The brokerage, in a note dated Tuesday, lowered its target for bitcoin to US$82,000 (HK$643,205) from US$112,000 (HK$878,544) and trimmed its ether forecast to US$2,240 (HK$17,571) from US$3,175 (HK$24,910).
Bitcoin was last trading at US$58,864.27 (HK$461,745), its weakest level since September 2024, having halved in value from an all-time high of US$126,223.18 (HK$990,127) in October last year. Ether was last at US$1,585.63 (HK$12,433), its lowest since April 2025.
Crypto markets have struggled this year amid heightened market volatility, investor hype around big expected IPOs and persistent ETF outflows that track the assets.
Both cryptocurrencies are trading below their long-term moving-day averages, reflecting bearish sentiment. Citi's bear-case scenario, which assumes recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued ETF outflows, values bitcoin at US$53,000 (HK$415,746) and ether at US$1,094 (HK$8,581) over the next year.
Citi said its revision was driven by its decision to cut its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero from US$10 billion (HK$78.44 billion).
"ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently," it said, adding that bitcoin ETF flows were down about US$3.3 billion (HK$25.89 billion) so far this year. The brokerage expects broader investor adoption to remain on hold until a new catalyst emerges.
It also said that slow progress on US crypto legislation and concerns over potential bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury companies have hit investor sentiment, with the weakness coinciding with a rotation into AI-related assets.
Reuters
