The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has maintained its forecast of a 3 percent increase in Hong Kong’s total exports in 2025, but warned that performance is expected to weaken in the second half of the year amid mounting global trade uncertainties.
In a report released on Wednesday, the HKTDC said that while Hong Kong’s export activity was relatively strong in the first half of the year, a sharp slowdown is expected to appear in the coming months, with softness possibly extending into the first quarter of 2026.
It also noted that export confidence weakened in the second quarter.
The council said both key metrics had fallen below the critical threshold of 50 in the second quarter, the first instance in around a year. The Current Performance Index dropped from 52.1 in the first quarter to 49.6, while the Expectation Index declined from 51 to 49.
The council said the survey was conducted between late April and mid-May, a period coinciding with heightened tensions in the US-China trade conflict. As such, the pessimistic outlook among exporters was broadly in line with expectations.
The HKTDC added that subsequent developments – including recent commitments by both Washington and Beijing to work toward a trade agreement – may be reflected in the third-quarter results.
STAFF REPORTER
