Licensing announcements are coming sometime this month, and Jockey Club officials will need to take stock of what has worked – and what hasn't – as they seek to inject genuine competition into the jockey ranks.
Let's start by saying that Zac Purton's dominance is earned and sometimes when champions come along, this is what they do. Purton passed 2,000 Hong Kong wins on Sunday - the first jockey to do so – as he charges away with his ninth championship, a fifth straight and eighth in nine seasons.
Purton deserves his plaudits but that is not the same as saying officials have no obligation to at least try to shake things up. Hugh Bowman is a true champion – and a big race specialist as shown by his Derby and Champions Mile rides – but rarely riding at less than 126 pounds means he is fighting with one hand behind his back in his battle with Purton.
Of those who could truly take a dent out of Purton's dominance, James McDonald and Ryan Moore are not coming full-time. Neither is Joao Moreira, whose end-of-season cameo as Caspar Fownes' stable jockey has delivered excitement, spark, and a narrative thread at a time of year that can quietly drift toward the finish line. If officials accept that they cannot convince one full-time challenger to make Hong Kong home, then perhaps the answer is a succession of hard-headed veterans keeping him honest throughout the season.
Earlier this season we theorized that perhaps short-term licenses, set around a leaner core group of full-time riders, was a better way to keep week-to-week competition from becoming stale.
To the Club's credit, the short-term licensees this season have worked spectacularly well - particularly through the period up to and including International Day. James McDonald delivered 18 wins at 15.7%. Maxime Guyon rode 15 winners from 171 (8.8%) through to Derby Day and Dylan Browne McMonagle finished with 10 wins at better than seven per cent. Even Hollie Doyle managed five wins from 99 at a time when the roster looked more like an invitational event.
So, who fits the bill as a rider who could move the needle when the season hits a flat spot? When Blake Shinn returns from injury, he would be a great addition for a month or two – his sharp observations of Hong Kong racing on social media shows he has kept his eye on the game.
Tim Clark did a terrific job as a lightweight option 15 years ago, left on good terms and is a more accomplished rider now. Umberto Rispoli – chirpy, competitive, no one's idea of a soft touch – would bring instant spark. What about an American? The Ortiz brothers are probably out of reach, but worth a call.
And who makes way from the full-time list, if anyone? Two foreign riders still on the roster currently sit below the five per cent mark by win percentage – previously a type of unofficial threshold. Brenton Avdulla's slump is concerning. From 47 winners at nine per cent last season – fourth in the championship – he has 16 from 371 at four per cent. Richard Kingscote is in similar territory but improving since a slow start. Recent precedent suggests both will be renewed.
But the case of recent arrival Ethan Brown is interesting. Two wins from 72 starts is hard to defend, but he needs opportunities. On Sunday at Sha Tin, four of his eight mounts were sent off at 30-to-1 or longer.
Officials need to ask about these stats – are they outliers or trends – as they weigh up options for 2026/27.
