Lawmakers back pause on basketball betting amid risks from prediction markets

Lawmakers have expressed support for the government’s decision to pause the rollout of basketball betting, citing emerging risks linked to the rapid rise of prediction markets.

The move follows reports that authorities have asked the Hong Kong Jockey Club to suspend implementation plans while assessing the impact of prediction-based trading platforms, which have gained popularity overseas.

Lawmakers noted that while the legal framework for basketball betting has already been published, there would be no legal barrier to launching the activity once conditions are deemed suitable.

Prediction markets under scrutiny

Prediction markets, which date back to pre-16th century Europe where wagers were placed on papal elections, have evolved into platforms where users trade contracts based on the outcomes of political, economic and sporting events.

Unlike traditional bookmakers, these markets do not involve a central operator setting odds. Instead, users buy and sell contracts among themselves, with positions able to be traded before outcomes are finalized.

Recent developments in the United States have heightened concerns. Large sums have been wagered on geopolitical events, including nearly US$90 million in bets on whether the United States would launch military action against Iran by February 28.

Unusual trading patterns have also been observed, with reports of accounts accurately predicting the timing of a potential ceasefire and generating profits exceeding US$600,000. The incident prompted the White House to issue an internal warning against speculative trading linked to official information.

Lawmakers call for cautious approach

Ronick Chan Chun-ying, chairman of the Legislative Council Bills Committee on the Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill 2025, said it was reasonable for the government to study the implications of prediction markets before proceeding.

He noted that the legislative groundwork for basketball betting is already in place, and that implementation could move forward smoothly once the environment stabilizes. He also called for continued efforts to combat illegal betting activities and strengthen public education.

Regulatory gaps raise concerns

Lawmaker Nixie Lam Lam, also a member of the Betting and Lotteries Commission, said the decision to delay implementation reflects a responsible and pragmatic approach, given the rapid development and regulatory gaps associated with prediction markets.

She warned that such platforms could be exploited by illicit actors if not properly regulated, potentially fueling illegal gambling activities.

Lam stressed that Hong Kong has long taken a firm stance against illegal betting to safeguard social stability and protect public assets, adding that a comprehensive risk assessment and robust regulatory framework are essential before introducing new forms of legal sports betting.

She also reminded the public that participating in unapproved prediction markets involving sports betting constitutes illegal gambling.

Meanwhile, lawmaker Ng Kit-chong said many prediction markets operate using cryptocurrencies, making them difficult to regulate under existing financial systems. The large volumes involved further complicate oversight by traditional institutions.

He agreed that the government’s decision to conduct further studies before proceeding is appropriate, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to gambling policy in Hong Kong.