Guessing game for next US presidential contenders | American Lens | Michael Chugani

The United States is hurtling toward congressional midterm elections that could radically reshape the country's politics. Expect a day of reckoning if Democrats win at least one house of Congress.

US President Donald Trump's Republican Party now narrowly controls both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Consistent polls show Democrats will almost certainly retake the House and possibly the Senate. Trump would face a day of reckoning if that happens. Democrats intend to launch corruption investigations into him, his family, and top officials if they win. Some have threatened to impeach Trump.

Trump is fearfully mindful of this. Reports say his top officials are seeking legal advice on how to deal with corruption allegations if Democrats regain congressional power. Political focus will shift to the 2028 presidential election after November's midterm elections. The guessing game has already started. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are the only likely Republican candidates for president.

It is customary for a vice president to run after a serving president's term ends, or if the president decides to step down. Rubio has said he will not run if Vance runs. Vance has dropped hints that he intends to run for president in 2028. Democrat former president Barack Obama broke the norm when his two terms ended in 2016. He supported his secretary of state Hillary Clinton instead of his vice president Joe Biden to run against Trump.

Trump defeated Clinton, but Biden made a comeback to defeat Trump in the 2020 election. Biden stepped down under pressure from Democratic Party leaders after a disastrous presidential debate against Trump while campaigning for a second term.

He supported then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump defeated Harris to win a second term in the 2024 election.

No Democrat has definitively declared an intention to run in the 2028 presidential election. California's Governor Gavin Newsom, who will finish his second and final term in January 2027, is seen as a top contender.

But he has said he will not run if Harris runs again. Many other leading Democrats are potential presidential candidates. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia impresses me most.

He is seeking reelection in this November's midterm elections and has become a rising star after acerbic attacks against Trump.

Other possibilities include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive congresswoman who represents a New York City district in the House. I do not think she can win. America does not seem ready for a woman president.

Michael Chugani is a longtime journalist who has worked in Hong Kong, the US, and London

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