Unbeatable: the rare certainty of Ka Ying Rising

There is a moment before a Ka Ying Rising race that is unlike anything else in Hong Kong racing. The crowd knows. The jockey knows. The rivals know. The only question is by how far.

The five-year-old has not lost since January 2024. Since then he has won 18 straight races, smashing Silent Witness’s hallowed Hong Kong record of 17 along the way. Eight of those victories have come at Group 1 level. He has broken course records at both 1,200 meters and 1,400m at Sha Tin, clocking 1 minute and 7.2 seconds and 1 minute and 19.36 seconds respectively.

He conquered Australia’s best sprinters in The Everest at Randwick last October, the richest turf race on earth. The margins tell the story of a horse pulling further away from his rivals. A neck early in the streak; now lengths — 2¼, 2¾, 3¼, 3¾. His most recent demolition in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup came by three and a half lengths in course-record time.

In his last seven Sha Tin starts, so much money has been piled onto Ka Ying Rising that the Hong Kong Jockey Club has had to dip into its own takeout to guarantee a minimum win dividend of 1.05 – odds that imply a 95 per cent chance of winning – but the crowd knows the real probability is closer to 100.

As Zac Purton said after the record-breaking 18th win: “He’s in a league of his own. They’re very good horses that he’s racing against, and he just does it like he’s having a barrier trial.”

Before last year’s Sprint Cup, David Hayes joked that his horse should be carrying a 20-pound penalty, not five, such is the talent gap between the champ and his rivals.

Ka Ying Rising didn’t disappoint, winning by three lengths for his 11th consecutive victory. Since then, seven more wins have followed and more records have tumbled. Not much has changed.

Rated 140 and again carrying just a five-pound penalty in Monday’s Group 2 Sprint Cup, he faces Helios Express, Beauty Waves and Raging Blizzard. He has beaten them all before.

On Monday, that rare sense of certainty will settle over Sha Tin once more