Apple's highly anticipated foldable iPhone could see intense speculation with resale prices doubling its official tag due to scarce initial supply and manufacturing challenges, according to TF International Securities(HK) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
Kuo noted that the device may mirror the 2017 iPhone X launch by being announced alongside other new models but delaying both pre-orders and official sales until the fourth quarter of 2026.
Third-quarter shipments for the foldable model are estimated at merely 500,000 to one million units, drastically lower than the 20 million to 22 million units projected for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
Based on discussions with sales channels and proxy buyers, the analyst concluded that demand will remain strong through the end of 2026 even at a price of US$2,300 (HK$17,940) to US$2,500.
He predicts the device could sell out immediately after pre-orders open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching to between four and six weeks. An innovative user experience, highly recognizable design, and early production limits will support this premium driven by scalpers.
However, Kuo added that the best window for assessing true demand will be late 2026 to the first quarter of 2027, once early production issues improve and the year-end launch buzz fades.
