Exports forecast to grow up to 9pc following outbound shipment surge

Hong Kong’s Trade Development Council raised its export growth forecast for 2025 to a range of 7 to 9 percent from an earlier estimate of 3 percent, after the city's outbound shipments climbed 12.7 percent year-on-year in the first seven months.

Export sentiment also improved in the third quarter. Both the Current Performance and Expectation indices climbed back above the key 50 threshold, with the former rising to 53.3 from 49.6 and the latter to 54.3 from 49.0, marking their highest levels since the upgraded HKTDC Export Confidence Index was introduced early last year.

The stronger-than-expected export performance in the first seven months has mainly been attributed to the front‑loading strategy adopted by traders amid uncertain US trade policies.

However, these effects are likely to fade in the coming months, said HKTDC research director Irina Fan Yuen-yee, who urged exporters to stay cautious and avoid excessive optimism.

The council also warned that concerns over future tariff hikes and further supply chain risks continue to haunt the new, more fragmented global trading system.

STAFF REPORTER