China’s economy grew by just 2.5 to 3 percent in 2025, the Rhodium Group think tank estimates, roughly half the pace implied by official data, driven by a collapse in fixed-asset investment in the US$19 trillion (HK$147.8 trillion) economy over the second half of the year.
Policymakers are expected to announce that China met its full-year growth target of “around 5 percent” when top leaders gather in March for their annual parliamentary session and unveil the next five-year plan, touting robust exports in the face of a tariff war with the US and weak domestic demand.
But there will be around half a trillion dollars in lost demand unaccounted for, according to a report released by Rhodium Group on Monday.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
If accurate, the shortfall could cloud Beijing’s ability to gauge how urgently it must act to avert a severe slowdown across the world’s second-largest economy, or assess its negotiating strength in talks with US President Donald Trump to end a tariff war that has upended global supply chains.
In 2026, the Chinese economy is on course to grow between just 1 percent and 2.5 percent in 2026, Rhodium Group estimated, far below the IMF’s forecast for the year of 4.5 percent.
“China’s 2025 economic growth story turns on whether investment merely declined in the second half of the year or collapsed,” the report said, citing an inconsistency in data showing a drop in fixed-asset investment but capital formulation seemingly still making a positive contribution to GDP.
“History offers no examples of economies that have recorded 5 percent real GDP growth while facing years of persistent deflation, as China has for 10 consecutive quarters. We doubt China is the first,” the report added.
Fixed-asset investment in everything from roads and rail to housing and factories, started 2025 strong, rising 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, but had slipped into negative territory by June and had plunged as much as 12.2 percent by October.
Officials said gross capital formulation, the investment component of GDP, still contributed 0.9 percentage points to real growth during the third quarter, but the Rhodium report questions whether metrics such as falling land sales and second-hand equipment purchases were properly accounted for.
Fixed-asset investment fell 2.6 percent in the January-November period, the most recent official data shows, driven by a 15.9 percent drop in property investment.
“The miscalculation for China’s economy has been persistent for too long,” the think tank said, “and always in the same direction of overstatement.”
Reuters
