Hong Kong's stock market may pick up by 5 to 10 percent by the end of the year if the central government launches more policies to stimulate the economy, BNP Paribas estimates.
When the public and mainland banks benefit from supportive policies, market confidence can be elevated, said Jason Lui Shing, head of equity and derivative strategy for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas.
BNP Paribas lowered China's economic growth forecast for this year from 5.2 percent to 4.9 percent, which is still higher than the market expectation, due to China's slower-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter, said Jacqueline Rong, chief China Economist of BNP Paribas.
Credit rating agency Fitch predicts China's gross domestic product this year will be 4.8 percent compared to the government's goal of 5 percent, as the pace of growth may struggle to pick up for the rest of this year. The prediction comes from the agency's September issue of the Global Economic Forecasts Report.
UBS Investment Bank maintained its forecast for China's exports to grow by 3.5 percent in 2024, but lowered its forecast for export growth from 3 percent to 1.5 percent in 2025. It is because the country's external demand may weaken further that the annual growth rate of exports may be able to remain low in the short term, said Wang Tao, UBS chief China economist.
Staff reporter
