Hong Kong housing boom resilient despite mainland capital controls, Goldman Sachs says

China's curb on cross-border capital outflows is unlikely to disrupt Hong Kong's property market upcycle, with Goldman Sachs reiterating that Hong Kong property prices will rise 15 percent this year.

However, Goldman Sachs noted the new rules could dampen demand for luxury homes and affect mainland investors who are not genuine owner-occupiers nor intend to settle in Hong Kong. The bank also forecasted the city's property prices to rise 7 percent next year and climb 4 percent in 2028.

The bank said that although mainland buyers accounted for 35 percent of Hong Kong's residential sales in 2025, 78 percent of those were properties priced below HK$12 million –still within the reach of legal fund remittance channels.

Goldman Sachs indicated that the current upward trend in Hong Kong's property market is unlikely to be reversed, as demand mainly comes from end-users rather than investors, rental growth remains strong, and immigration and housing-related policies remain supportive.

The bank added that it views the recent share price volatility as a good opportunity to accumulate Hong Kong property stocks at lower levels, including Henderson Land Development (0012), Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016), and Sino Land (0083).
 

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