Hong Kong's 10-pound apprentice takes her first rides at the Valley, while Winning Diamond's stable switch and the early-season trainer numbers provide other angles to watch for on Wednesday.
Yuen set for Valley debut
Nichola Yuen Hang-yiu could hardly have started the season better, landing the opener aboard Pierre Ng Pang-chi’s Good Fortune, but Wednesday brings a new challenge when Hong Kong’s 10-pound apprentice takes her first rides at Happy Valley.
She has four mounts, headed by Ng-trained Leading Dragon in the Class Four 1,200m in Race 7. He also makes his Valley debut, although there should be little mystery about where he lands in the run. The Jockey Club’s speed map has him leading on his own and it is difficult to map the race any other way.
Yuen also partners Ng’s class-dropping Blue Illusion, who draws low and should map well.
Yuen’s race sense will be given a sterner test elsewhere. Dennis Yip Chor-hong’s Lean Master (Race 3) has trialed impressively ahead of his first Class Five run but draws barrier 12 in a race loaded with speed, while David Hayes’ Harmony N Blessed (Race 8) faces a similar problem from gate 11.
From Yip to Eustace
Winning Diamond failed to place in 13 starts for Dennis Yip Chor-hong, but the move to David Eustace makes him one of the more interesting stable transfers on Wednesday.
That barren run has dragged his rating to a career-low 28 and dropped him firmly into Class Five, while his trial for Eustace suggested there may be more there than his form reads. Barrier 11 is no help, but horses leaving Yip winless have a habit of finding something elsewhere.
Over the past 10 years, 31 horses have left Yip’s stable without winning for him and 19 — 61.3 per cent — subsequently won for another trainer. Those 19 combined for 47 wins after leaving, while five struck immediately at their first start for the new yard.
Winning Diamond may not get the position in running Andrea Atzeni would want from gate 11, but even if Wednesday proves a race too soon, any improvement is worth filing away. The evidence to date suggests the stable switch is effective.
Spotting early-season trends
One meeting tells us only so much, but the opening two months are a better guide.
Danny Shum’s Sha Tin double fits the pattern. The most successful opening-day trainer of the past 10 seasons averages more than 10 winners through the first two months and sends out six at Happy Valley on Wednesday.
Mark Newnham’s numbers have climbed sharply: three winners through the opening two months of his first Hong Kong campaign, then 12, then 20. He was off the mark again on Sunday and has three runners on Wednesday, including likely favorite Robot Lucky Star.
David Hayes had Ka Ying Rising as his only winner on Sunday while his other eight runners were beaten, but he also averages around 10 winners through the opening two months and had 13 by the same stage last season. He saddles nine on Wednesday.
Caspar Fownes drew a blank at Sha Tin, but the King of the Valley returns to his best track on Wednesday, where he saddles six and averages close to 11 winners through the opening two months.
Six Up Play
The Six Up ticket hinges on Race 5 banker #5 Violet Star, who came to hand at the end of last season and looks set to make further progress this campaign. Barrier one gives Karis Teetan every chance to secure the right run, and he should be hard to hold out.
That stand allows us to spread wider elsewhere, particularly in Race 3, which looks one of the trickier legs of the sequence.
There is also added incentive this week, with a *HK$3.8 million jackpot* carried forward to the Six Win Bonus and an *estimated dividend of HK$10 million*.
Race 3: #7 Vigor Elleegant, #10 Winning Diamond, #1 Lakeshore Hero, #11 Oriental Surprise
Race 4: #4 Sunday’s Serenade, #2 Sky Deep
*Race 5: #5 Violet Star (banker)
Race 6: #6 Jumbo Blessing, #9 Day Day Victory
Race 7: #4 Leading Dragon, #1 Robot Lucky Star
Race 8: #11 Ace Champion, #4 Tycoon Resources
64 combinations, HK$128 at 20 percent
