Luke Middlebrook's late mail and market analysis: Sha Tin, Sunday, February 8..

Luke Middlebrook’s late mail for the Sha Tin meeting on February 8.

Horse to Watch – R3 No. 5 Lucky Ranger

Lucky Ranger may have to do it the tough way again from barrier 14 today, but he looks like a horse headed higher either way.

A horse like Lucky Ranger is the type of horse Mark Newnham’s stable excels with: a progressive Private Purchase Griffin (PPG) who looks capable of rising in the ratings and, with the right progress, could be in the Classic Series conversation this time next year.

The three-year-old debuted 28 days ago off a series of encouraging barrier trials. The market did not miss the cue, sending him out a well-backed, even-money favorite despite drawing wide in barrier 12.

He was not the quickest away from that outside stall and settled near last. Up front, Majestic Valour led comfortably, then slipped clear in the straight and was always going to take catching.

Lucky Ranger had too much ground to make up, but he closed quickly and cut the margin to one and three-quarter lengths at the line. It was a run full of promise for what comes next.

Newnham has sent him back to the trials between runs and he went to the line under a hold into third. The jump, though, was only fair again, which could become a race-day query.

Trainer to Watch – John Size

John Size moved up the trainers’ championship table with a Sha Tin treble last Sunday, and he heads into today with another capable team.

That three-timer lifted him to fifth on the standings, 10 wins behind premiership leader Mark Newnham. Newnham went winless at Wednesday’s Happy Valley meeting, while Size left with a pair of close seconds that kept the stable’s form on show.

Size saddles seven runners and the best chance may come in the finale through Flow Water Flow (R11 No. 13). The four-year-old broke through over the mile last time after three second-place finishes over shorter trips. He rises to Class 3, drops handily in weight, and Size stretches him out in trip to 1800 meters.

Elsewhere, Lifeline Express (R7 No. 6) and Juneau Pride (R10 No. 1) are chasing their first wins of the season. Both arrive off last-start thirds, their best runs of the campaign.

Young Legacy (R3 No. 9), Alabama Song (R6 No. 5), and Ensued (R6 No. 6) complete the team. Ensued lines up in the feature G3 Centenary Vase over 1800 meters after finishing third in it last year as the race favorite.

Jockey to Watch – Jerry Chau Chun-lok

Jerry Chau Chun-lok is right on track to better last season’s win tally, and he has some strong chances to keep a big week in the saddle going at Sha Tin on Sunday.

After maintaining a perfect three-from-three record aboard Mark Newnham-trained Lucky Sam Gor last Sunday at Sha Tin, Chau secured a brace at Happy Valley on Wednesday night to push his tally to 19 wins for the season, six shy of last season’s haul of 23.

Chau has eight rides today and, like Lucky Sam Gor, he partners a horse he knows well in Emblazon (R10 No. 4). He has been aboard five of the four-year-old’s six starts, and this season has been a revelation for the pair: three wins and a second from four runs, capped by Emblazon passing his first Class 3 test with flying colors last time out.

Chau and Cody Mo Wai-kit link up earlier with Jolly Jumper (R1 No. 6) and E Passion (R3 No. 6), while their strongest claim outside of Emblazon could be Conrad Patch (R6 No. 2), whom Chau rode into a promising debut second to Hot Delight.

In the following race, Chau continues his association with Galactic Voyage (R7 No. 9), third-up in the city after two fast-finishing efforts: fourth on debut to Aurora Patch, then third to Loyal Bright.

Avoid at the Odds – Mr Cool

There has been a flood of early money for Mr Cool (R2, No. 3) but the price looks completely bottomed-out at an early even-money quote for a horse who still has more questions than answers.

Frankie Lor Fu-chuen’s four-year-old steps out sixth-up for the season in the Class 4 over 1200 meters on the all-weather, chasing his second career win since breaking through 11 runs ago in April last year.

Mr Cool looked like a three-year-old headed higher after that maiden win, but he has not gone on with it. He has stayed at the pointy end of Class 4 in eight subsequent runs, picking up three minor placings, two of them in his last two starts, as Lor has mixed tracks and trips.

He has trialed well all season, particularly on the all-weather, but he has not converted it on race day, beaten twice as favorite and now beaten three times at the head of the market. Three runs ago, he also pulled up with blood in the trachea, which adds an extra layer of doubt at the price.

Mr Cool’s last-start third on his first attempt at today’s course and distance was another threatening-to-win run. The question is whether today sets up his way.

Barrier two is an upgrade on paper, but the query remains whether he can use it to land in a handier position. Even after jumping well from barrier eight last time, he could not hold the spot and ended up nearer to last in the run.

Key rivals such as Glory Cloud, Natural High, and Herbal Star look likely to be in front at the 400 meters today, and Mr Cool could be left to do the chasing again, as has been the case throughout his career.

While it’s not a deep race, it’s competitive among the main chances. Mr Cool may be the right horse, but it’s the wrong price.

Legitimate Favorite – Race 3 No. 5 Lucky Ranger

It was a tough night for favorites at Happy Valley on Wednesday, and it does not look any more straightforward for those at the top of the betting at Sha Tin today. Favorite backers had to wait until the last race midweek, when Corleone got the job done at $2.10 after atoning for a last-start defeat at a slightly shorter price.

There are seven last-start beaten favorites lining up today: Jolly Jumper (R1 No. 6), Lucky Ranger (R3 No. 5), Absolute Honour (R3 No. 10), Notthesillyone (R4 No. 7), Bull Attitude (R5 No. 12), Voyage Boss (R6 No. 1), and Dazzling Fit (R11 No. 4). Aside from Absolute Honour, they are all at bigger prices this time, including Lucky Ranger, who sits second pick in early betting.

On debut he was heavily backed into even money, which looked a touch short, but the talent was still on show despite him not winning. He may still start favorite on the back of that, but the wide draw should keep the quote more realistic than last time.

Best at the Odds – Race 10 No. 14 The Absolute

A week can feel like a long time in racing. After dominating the headlines last weekend when Little Paradise won the Hong Kong Classic Mile, Jimmy Ting Koon-ho heads to Sha Tin today with just one runner.

That runner is The Absolute, resuming from a seven-month layoff, including a mandatory three-month stand-down under the Rules of Racing after bleeding from both nostrils following a barrier trial on August 30 last year.

So he comes into today with veterinary queries. It is not just the bleed, it is also his first run since throat surgery after he was diagnosed a roarer in early May.

But The Absolute is the type you do not want to ignore at a price. He won first-up last season at $18 and never went around in single digits in six subsequent runs, but ended the season with three consistent, close-up thirds and a fourth, all at double figures.

That can be the case again today, especially from barrier 11, where he is likely to get back in the field as usual. But the price is the appeal for a horse of his profile, and at the foot of the weights he might be one to get into it late should the speed eventuate.