Wipe the slate clean

Aiden He

The Greater Bay Area needs around US$1.84 trillion (HK$14.35 trillion) to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and clean electricity will contribute to the largest emission reduction in the long term for industries including manufacturing, road transport, and buildings, according to a report.

This is equal to around 1 percent of the gross domestic product of the region during 2020-2060 and about US$830 billion of this will be needed for manufacturing and other energy-intensive industries and US$700 billion for road transport, a study led by the World Resources Institute shows.

Although the GBA may still reach its peak-emission target in 2030 if each city's carbon-intensity reduction remains what it was in China's 13th five-year plan going forward, it might miss the net-zero emission goal by 2060 with 355 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions needed to be offset, the researchers say.

China's CO2 emissions per capita were 8.05 tons in 2021, according to Our World in Data.

If cities in the area want to achieve the target on time by cutting the emissions by 90 percent and offset the rest through forest-based carbon sinks and other negative emissions technologies, they will have to trim the emissions by around 7.5 percent annually, the report says.

If they aim at a more aggressive objective of reaching a peak of carbon releases by 2025 and neutrality by 2050, they need to reduce carbon intensity by 24 percent during the 14th five-year plan and maintain an annual emissions reduction rate of 16 percent in the 2025-50 period. This would be difficult and require much stricter policies and measures because the target is higher than what was achieved in the 13th plan in Guangdong - a 22.35 percent carbon intensity reduction - and emissions cuts from some measures such as energy efficiency will get harder, the report notes.

Analyzed by sectors, the research finds that the largest emissions-reduction potential in the manufacturing industry - up to 74 percent from now to 2060 - lies in power generation and heating systems which can be decarbonized by leveraging advances in low-carbon electricity from the grid and switching to renewable energy.

Phasing down fossil fuels in production is seen to be able to bring down emissions by 16 percent. The coal used in ceramic kilns, papermaking, and textile boilers can be replaced with natural gas in the short and medium term, and over the long term, coal-related carbon emissions can be effectively cut back in the cement, steel, and chemical industries, the report points out.

It estimates that by 2060, low-emission fuels, including biodiesel, green hydrogen and methane produced from hydrogen, could replace approximately 50-60 percent of oil consumption in the petrochemical and chemical industries.

On road transport, the analysis reveals that CO2 emissions in the GBA would peak at 119.9 million tons around 2026 after rising 31 percent from 2020, and then fall to 20 million tons of CO2 -- 80 percent below the 2020 level -- by 2060. Still, gasoline and diesel are expected to remain the main energy sources until 2050 when electricity and hydrogen surpass them.

While the promotion of new energy vehicles together with upstream clean electricity and green hydrogen is seen to contribute the largest emissions-cut potential in the long term, in the medium term, a mode shift is believed to be the biggest contributor to decarbonization.

Shifting passenger transport from private vehicles to public transit services and shifting road transport to railways and ships would bring larger reductions than NEV promotion and fuel economy improvement before 2030, the researchers note, adding that this would require major investments in railway construction; more aggressive policies to expand public transit services and shift freight from highways to railways and waterways.

The buildings sector is projected to peak its carbon emissions at 180 million tons in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2058 at the earliest. While emissions in the sector across the GBA are varied, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong account for 60 percent of the total. Given that electricity accounts for 89 percent of emissions, it suggests that the area can focus on shifting to low-emission fuel for electricity generation and renewable energy in the industry.