The Hong Kong government lifted the full-year real gross domestic product growth forecast to the range of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent, compared with the original estimates of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent, citing the stronger-than-expected actual outturn in the first half and the near-term outlook.
For the first half of 2026, real GDP grew by 5.1 percent over a year earlier, the strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years.
The city’s GDP grew by 4.3 percent in the second quarter, the same as the advance estimate, supported by the robust performance in external trade and an increase in domestic demand.
The forecasts for the underlying and headline consumer price inflation rates for 2026 are maintained at 2.5 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, the government said.
Looking ahead, the vibrant global demand for artificial intelligence-related electronic products is expected to continue supporting Hong Kong's merchandise trade performance, while exports of services are also expected to benefit from sustained growth in visitor arrivals, alongside steady demand for financial and business services in Hong Kong, it said.
Domestic demand is expected to stay firm, supported by stable labour market conditions and solid business and consumer sentiment, the government noted.
Regarding inflation, the government said that consumer price inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as the earlier surge in international oil prices continues to feed through.
The lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the uncertainty of the inflation outlook, while price pressures in other areas remain largely contained, which should keep overall inflation at a moderate level, it added.
