Rain has made Notable Speech’s first attempt at 1,400 meters a more complicated assignment in Saturday’s Group 1 City of York Stakes, with softer ground threatening to blunt the class edge of Godolphin’s five-time Group 1-winning miler.
Britain’s only all-aged Group 1 over seven furlongs already asked something different of Charlie Appleby’s five-year-old. His five top-level wins have all come over 1,600 meters, while his only previous start away from a mile came when fifth in last year’s July Cup.
Now the ground has added another concern.
Appleby had been comfortable with the shorter distance, but made clear earlier in the week that the weather was the one variable he did not want.
Appleby was quoted by BloodHorse as saying: “Notable Speech is in great shape. I'd rather be drawn in stall 1 than out wide, while dropping back to 7 furlongs doesn't worry me at all.
“The one thing we'll be keeping half an eye on is the weather as he's a quick-ground horse. Good ground will be fine, but if there's any soft in the going, there'll be a question mark over whether he'll run. Hopefully conditions will be fine and he can take his chance.”
Appleby was also quoted in a Hong Kong Jockey Club article as saying: “He is in good form. We've always had an eye on going to York for the City of York Stakes and I think 1400m in a big field will suit him.”
Satono Reve faces a different version of the same problem.
The Japanese sprinter, twice a Group 1 winner over 1,200 meters at home, races beyond that distance for the first time after a European campaign that produced a narrow defeat at Royal Ascot and a third at Newmarket.
Both runs came on good-to-firm ground, leaving the extra 200 meters and easier conditions as fresh concerns for Joao Moreira’s mount.
Moreira was quoted in the Hong Kong Jockey Club article as saying: “He is not difficult to ride, but sometimes he doesn't jump from the stalls as fast as he needs to for sprint races.”
The longer trip may help if Satono Reve is again slightly slow into stride, but it also takes him into a part of the race he has not had to prove before.
Lake Forest has far fewer adjustments to make.
William Haggas’ runner finished second in this race last year and returns after winning the Group 2 HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes over a similar distance at Goodwood. He also brings a more adaptable ground profile, which may become increasingly important if conditions ease further.
Haggas was quoted in the Hong Kong Jockey Club article as saying: “This will be a tough race to win and he's a horse who needs driving but he doesn't seem to mind what the ground is.”
Ten Bob Tony adds another major form line after winning the Queen Anne Stakes, while Zavateri enters calculations after finishing fifth in the Sussex Stakes.
“He has come on a lot since Goodwood and I couldn't be happier with him. It's all systems go,” Eve Johnson Houghton was quoted in the Hong Kong Jockey Club article as saying of Zavateri.
Puerto Rico, Rogue Diplomat, Paborus, Flora Of Bermuda and Power Blue complete a 14-runner field with more depth than a simple Notable Speech-Satono Reve comparison.
Notable Speech remains the class runner, but Saturday’s race is no longer only about whether a miler has the speed for seven furlongs. The weather has made it a sharper examination of adaptability, and that brings Lake Forest firmly into the equation.
The City of York Stakes is carded as S5-2 and will be run at 10 pm Hong Kong time on Saturday.
