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Luke Middlebrook takes a close look at Wednesday's meeting at Happy Valley.
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Horse to Watch – R8 No 12 All Out For Six
Starting a Hong Kong career on a mark of 80 in Class 2 is no easy assignment, but All Out For Six has done enough at the trials to be one to watch on debut.
He’s one of nine South African imports in Hong Kong and one of five trained by Mark Newnham. (Brett Crawford has one, a stable switch from Newnham, and Douglas Whyte prepares the other two). A four-year-old gelding by One World, All Out For Six brings a record of three wins from 11 starts, with four placings at Group 2 and 3 level and a sixth in the G1 Cape Guineas.
He’s shown encouraging gate speed in his trials and he’s given the impression he’s acclimatized quickly. Though he has no all-weather form on paper, his Sha Tin dirt trials have matched his turf work, which may open options going forward.
All Out For Six tackles a deep Class 2 for his debut but avoids top weight in Class 3 by coming in on 115lb, with Andrea Atzeni riding 1lb over. A forward showing wouldn’t surprise, though second-up might be the time to take closer note. There’s a Class 3 (extended ratings 85–60) over 1200m all-weather race on March 9 and Newnham’s dirt runners are striking at 23% this season (8 from 35).
Trainer to Watch – Caspar Fownes
Caspar Fownes comes to Happy Valley tonight well placed to rebound from a January slide and stay in the premiership hunt.
Fownes opened the season with seven wins in both September and October, had just four in November, nine in December and four in January at just 6.5%.
January’s slowdown had a market profile behind it. The stable sent out more outsiders than in earlier months and chances were fewer: just 11.3% of his runners were priced at 5.0 or shorter, compared to around 19%-25% in September, October and December.
Fownes arrives at today’s nine-race Happy Valley card with a strong eight-runner team and still sits third in the trainers’ standings with 31 wins, just behind David Hayes (32) and Mark Newnham (34). His team is headlined by a last-start winner and a beaten even-money favorite and they both fit the market profile where the stable has been striking best this season: odds of 3.0 or shorter (11 runners, 8 wins at 72.7%), and 3.01 to 5.0 (39 runners, 11 wins at 28.2%).
Love Together (R6 No 3) rebounded from a tough sixth to win on his fourth try at the Valley and remains a top chance in tonight’s Class 3 over 1,000 meters. In the finale, Corleone (R9 No 5) looks to go one better after a hard-luck second last time.
Kaholo Angel (R3 No 4) and Nearly Fine (R4 No 2) add depth, while Forza Toro (R5 No 4) looks close to breaking through after a fast-finishing third on his first run in Class 4 from barrier 12. He breaks from barrier 1 this time and maps for a better trip.
Jockey to watch – Hugh Bowman
Hugh Bowman can carry January form into February with a solid book of seven rides today.
Coming off his best month yet, eight wins from 54 rides (14.8%), he has also been far more productive at Happy Valley than Sha Tin: 111 rides for 19 wins (17%) and a top-three strike of 42.3% at the Valley, versus 154 rides for 13 wins (8.4%) and a 29.9% top-three rate at Sha Tin. January in particular was productive at the Valley, 21 rides for five wins (23.8%).
Bowman sits out Race 1, but in Race 2 he hops aboard Mark Newnham’s Fatal Blow (R2 No 1) for the first time, and the inside gate is important after three runs from barrier 10 since returning to Class 4.
He then links up again with two in-form Danny Shum Chap-shing runners, Helene Feeling (R3 No 2), a clear map upgrade from barrier 2 after barrier 12 in the January Cup when third, and Hakka Radiance (R4 No 4), two wins from four rides together.
He also knows California Moxie (R5 No 3) well, winning twice aboard the Tony Cruz runner, as Cruz looks to end a 68-runner winless run.
Bowman’s night ends aboard David Hayes’ thriving five-year-old Storm Rider (R8 No 2), chasing a hat-trick and a fourth win for the season.
Avoid at the Odds - Race 2 No 10 Gimme Five
Time is ticking for David Probert to ride a winner in Hong Kong before his contract expires on February 17, and he has just one ride tonight, Gimme Five in the Class 4 over 1200 meters in Race 2.
The market has found him at roughly $10 early. The question is whether the form deserves it. The main angle is the map. From barrier two he looks set to land on the lead and give a sight, and there is a lack of pace on paper. That should allow Probert to give him every chance.
The concern is the profile. Gimme Five is a fairly exposed five-year-old now, one win from 24 starts with six placings, five of those placings in Class 4 where he has had 22 attempts to break through.
Since that breakthrough win six runs ago in Class 5, when he made all on the all-weather, his five runs back in grade have left a lot to be desired, more often than not dropping out in the straight. Two starts ago he also pulled up with blood in the trachea, which adds a health query.
So while the map gives him a chance to be in it for a long way, there’s enough in the form to need more in the price.
Best at the Odds - Race 5 No 6 Sure Joyful
Trainer Ricky Yiu Poon-fai saddles six runners on tonight’s card and all are at double-digits in the early markets. But what a difference a change in barrier can make at the tight city circuit, and a couple of his runners look set to benefit with a kinder draw.
Sure Joyful steps out in the Class 4 over 1650 meters for Yiu in Race 5 and his form reads poorly. From six starts this season, the seven-year-old has finished no better than eighth and arrives off a seventh-place finish three weeks ago.
But Sure Joyful was in Class 3 for his first three runs this season and he is not up to that level. His record in the grade tells the story: eight attempts for three fourth-place finishes as his best. He has been back in Class 4 for his last three runs, but the problem has been the gates and tactics.
Now Sure Joyful finds the set-up he has been looking for. Barrier two should see him ridden within striking distance, a couple or few pairs back on the fence, and in touch with rightful race favorite Forza Toro, who has also been searching for a map upgrade after wide draws in his last two starts. Sure Joyful is around the $10 mark early, which fits his profile.
Keep an eye on Yiu’s outsider in the finale, Mr Ascendency. Like Sure Joyful, he has had a string of no-shows from wide draws and a slide in the ratings, but a middle gate this time gives him the chance to land where he likes to be.
Legitimate Favorite - Race 9 No 5 Corelone
Corleone could cap a big night for Caspar Fownes in the finale after a rough run in transit when chasing the hat-trick in his first Class 3 test last time out.
Corleone has come back a better horse this campaign after needing time to develop, according to the trainer. After winning his first two starts of the season in Class 4, he went for the hat-trick early last month and was backed late from 3.7 into even money.
Things were going smoothly on the leader’s back until near the 500 meters, when he began to race keenly as the pace in front did not lift. He shifted off heels, then was checked to avoid another runner when that one failed to improve. Corleone picked back up in the straight but was collared late by a rival who did less work in transit. The sectionals suited those coming from the back, which only adds merit to his on-pace effort.
Once again he gets a low draw in barrier three and the speed map looks uncomplicated on paper: land on the leader’s back, with Uranus Star and Samarkand likely to go along at a good tempo, then peel out when it matters.
