Luke Middlebrook's late mail and market analysis: Sha Tin, Sunday, January 18

Luke Middlebrook takes a close look at the markets for the Sha Tin meeting on January 18.

Legitimate Favourite - Race 5 No 3 Cloud Nine

Cloud Nine earned his debut third the hard way from gate 12, but the draw swings his way now.

The Brazilian import was forced to do plenty early first-up to get across and take it up, then still boxed on when the swoopers arrived late. That effort had merit and it reads well for an untapped Mark Newnham-trained three-year-old.

Luke Ferraris can be positive without having to burn him to find a spot from barrier 2 today, whether that is holding the front or landing just behind it. 

Avoid at the Odds - Race 6 No 2 Nyx Gluck

Nyx Gluck still has plenty in his favour today. He draws well again and the form around his last-start win reads strong, so he is entitled to be firmly in calculations.

The difference is the race is tougher this time and he is priced as if he will get the same run and steer he enjoyed under James McDonald. At the top of the betting he is one to oppose. Top Time and Amazing Partners both appealing, and Thousand Spirit also looking a touch overlooked.

Best at the Odds - Race 10 No 3 Akasvani

Akashvani has had enough go wrong in his last three runs to take a forgiving view, and at $20-plus he reads as one the market has pushed too far.

He is on the quick back-up after lining up at this track and trip last week from barrier 13, where he never found the right run but still did his best work late into seventh. Two starts earlier he was badly held up late at Happy Valley, and the run after that his chance was effectively over after a severe check when he started a $3.8 favourite.

The market seems to have him as a 1200-metre horse today, but last week was an encouraging sign at the trip and his map improves now from barrier 8. At this quote, he is worth another look.

For Luke Middlebook's full race-by-race preview click here.