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At the risk of covering ground already taken by David Morgan's excellent piece on what the Derby could mean for the career of Mark Newnham, and before the industry dives headlong into trying to find next year's winner, it's worth revisiting just what a masterclass in big-race preparation Newnham's Classic Series campaign was.
Time will tell if Invincible Ibis is the best horse to come out of this Derby. Little Paradise may yet prove the finest miler among them. Numbers may emerge as the best middle-distance horse. But Newnham's planning and decision-making – along with Hugh Bowman's brilliance and bravery – meant Invincible Ibis was the best horse on the day. And in a Derby, the day is all that matters.
Sixth in the Classic Mile. Second in the Classic Cup. First in the Derby. That is not the profile of a horse who peaked too early or stumbled into form. That is preparation with a target. Newnham's decisions – tactics, gear changes, race placement – were all set around producing a horse versatile enough to handle whatever the two-turn test threw his way.
Some years the Derby is a stop-start affair. This time Numbers ensured it wasn't. What it did throw up was rough and tumble. The footage from Bowman's helmet cam told that story.
There was a moment down the back straight where the phrase "racing tight" didn't begin to describe the predicament Bowman and his horse found themselves in.
The pre-race map was textbook. Gate three, seventh in the run, the two-wide line. Jerry Chau wanted in on Emblazon. Bowman – usually the first rider to take a sit – might have relented in a Class 3. Nine times out of 10 he might have thought better of pushing into a barely-there gap. This was the Derby, though, and the urgency was real.
The decision to shift decisively to Bowman and book him for the series was yet another call Newnham got right. Zac Purton's defection could have been a disruption. Instead it became clarity. Cool, calm, collected – Bowman's nature belies a cutthroat competitive instinct. That race position was his.
Great sporting moments are often exactly that – moments. Details that take a split second but change destinies. Michael Jordan's hand on Byron Russell's hip as he hit the shot that clinched a sixth championship. Shane Warne's first ball to Mike Gatting, a leg break that drifted, dipped and rearranged the game.
Bowman surging forward, roaring for space, was the moment that won the Derby. But it wouldn't have happened without a horse given the time to grow in self-belief – confident enough to puff his chest out, trust his rider and muscle his way into the gap.
Early in his career, Invincible Ibis was reluctant in tight quarters, uncomfortable between horses. Rather than keep pushing, Newnham chose tactics and race placement that allowed the horse to arrive at the Derby having passed far more rivals than had ever passed him. Patience, not force.
The horse-first approach will continue on FWD Champions Day. Club officials would love their Derby winner to tackle the distance again in the FWD QEII Cup, but Newnham sees no sense in throwing his new stable star in against Romantic Warrior – chasing a record fourth straight win – let alone a Japanese contingent bolstered by top-class runners rerouted from the conflict around Dubai.
Invincible Ibis will head to the Champions Mile instead – the richer 2,000-meter stage can wait. Newnham has earned the right to decide.
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