Luke Middlebrook's late mail and market analysis: Sha Tin, Sunday, January 10

Luke Middlebrook with his horse, trainer and jockey to watch at Sha Tin on January 10, plus best bets at odds.

Horse to Watch - R9 No 2 Helene Supafeeling

Today is a useful measuring stick for Classic Series hopefuls as the four-year-olds dominate the card on the hunt for rating points. Helene Supafeeling is among the hopefuls looking to keep his trending the right way.

Helene Supafeeling arrived in Hong Kong as Port Light, a two-time winner from five at the mile in Britain for Archie Watson, and he had hinted at ability in his trials ahead of his local debut.

The spotlight may have been elsewhere on International Day, but Helene Supafeeling made his own statement, winning first-up in Hong Kong from a wide draw over a trip that looked on the short side and shaping as a horse who should only improve as he gets out in trip.

Helene Supafeeling does not line up in the key Class 3 mile restricted to four-year-olds, but he does step up to 1400 metres in the finale that keeps him on the right path. 

Trainer to Watch - John Size

John Size has won nine races from 51 runners since December 7, roughly three more than the market expected, and the stable brings another strong hand today.

Size saddles nine runners today and a good chance to keep the momentum rolling. Four-year-old Szeryng (R7 No 6) is a standout, ready to put a couple of luckless runs behind him.

After winning impressively first-up in Class 4, Szeryng has had excuses in two Class 3 runs, badly held up on his first try in the grade, then drawing barrier 13 last time and still managing to finish runner-up after a far-from-ideal trip.

Szeryng comes into barrier 2 today, adds the hood and tongue-tie for the first time, and finds a race where he can strike back.

Elsewhere, Fit For Beauty (R10 No 11) aims to make a statement in the Class 3 mile for four-year-olds off an impressive track-and-trip win, while Win Beauty Viva (R10 No 12) resumes in the same race. Endeared (R4 No 1) gets conditions to suit back to Class 4 over 1400 metres on turf after three all-weather runs, and lightly raced types Yuex De Lifeline (R2 No 10) and Crossborderdude (R5 No 6) remain open to improvement.

Jockey to Watch - Zac Purton

Zac Purton drew a blank from seven rides on Wednesday, but his book today is strong enough to put that behind him quickly.

Four beaten favourites. Four placings. It was an odd Purton night. He has 10 rides this afternoon, a number of them tied to the Classic Series picture as he weighs up his options.

The Classic Series clues come via Little Paradise (R8 No 4) in the 1400 metre Class 2 and Beauty Bolt (R10 No 2) in the four-year-old-only mile, but his chances do not end there. Robot Star (R5 No 5) and Szeryng (R7 No 6) come off luckless runs and look ready to atone. Fortune Boy (R9 No 9) gets the rise in distance with Purton back aboard, and Tin Fook (R11 No 9) draws better back at a suitable trip.

Best at the Odds - Race 1 No 2 I P O Bros

The Orman–Tsui pairing has already shown what a barrier upgrade can do for them through Concorde Star, and barrier 1 gives I P O Bros the same chance. 

I P O Bros was transferred to Tsui this season from David Hayes and the Australian PP is yet to run a place from 15 starts, but his recent runs have shown improvement. 

Two starts back he finished off well for fourth up the Sha Tin straight, beaten two and a half lengths, then last time he rose to 1200 metres and dropped into Class 5 for the first time. From barrier 14 he settled at the tail before a late surge into sixth, beaten just over three lengths.

A lot hinges on Orman making use of the inside draw, but he should be able to settle I P O Bros closer than last time. The gate and potential map upgrade sees the price tighten, but if around $7 holds up it is a fair.

Legitimate Favorite - Race 5 No 5 Robot Star

With five of the 11 favorites already sitting $3 or under early and a couple looking capable of tightening into long odds-on by jump time, favourite backers could be walking home with a bounce in their step.

Zac Purton will be at the centre of plenty of it. His book reads strong and the early markets have leaned his way accordingly.

Robot Star fits the brief. The switch to Purton is a clear positive for an untapped PPG who had excuses in a luckless mid-field finish last time, and he deserves to stay on top of the betting.

Avoid at the Odds - Race 6 No 5 China Win

China Win has gone from barrier 1 to barrier 14, which is a clear map downgrade. At the top of the betting early, he does not appeal.

The four-year-old had every chance last start from the inside stall and still could not win, though he only missed by the barest of margins. He might have travelled a touch keen, but Purton was able to give him every opportunity and there were no excuses.

From out wide he is likely back to quieter tactics. That was the pattern in his three runs prior from wide stalls, when he finished off strongly but still missed the placings. Purton staying on is a positive and he is edging closer to a first win, but from this draw and a negative map scenario he should not be the favourite.