HSBC raises 2026 Brent price forecast to US$95 per barrel

HSBC (0005) raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to US$95 a barrel last week, citing a longer effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Our base case now assumes that Hormuz traffic and Gulf output gradually restart from mid‑June, and a return to near‑normal system-level production and flows by end‑3Q26," HSBC said in a note dated May 6.

It added that a longer disruption implies larger inventory drawdowns, a more challenging post‑war refill, and a higher residual risk premium, supporting a higher long‑term price anchor.

In HSBC's scenario-based assumptions, the bank sees Brent averaging around US$110 a barrel in 2026 and US$85 a barrel in 2027 if a deal is only reached towards late summer but oil prices periodically correct on headlines.

The bank said that in a "pessimistic" scenario where a comprehensive deal takes around six months, leaving flows heavily constrained, Brent would average US$120 per barrel in 2026 and US$95 per barrel in 2027.

Oil prices rose by more than 3 percent on Tuesday as stark differences between the US and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight.

Reuters

 

𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽 ↓