iPhone Revenue May Face Mid-Single-Digit Decline

Apple Intelligence has not significantly boosted iPhone sales, and the revenue may drop by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year unless Apple adjusts its strategy, the renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said.

The US share of global iPhone shipments dropped 2.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, while Japan—where Apple Intelligence is not yet available—recorded a 6.8 percent increase in the same period, based on Apple’s January 30 earnings report.

Kuo also noted that iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024 declined by 5.8 percent year-on-year, while revenue decreased by only 0.8 percent, primarily due to further optimization of the iPhone product mix, with the Pro series’ shipment share rising from 54 percent to 61 percent in the same period.

However, Ming-Chi Kuo emphasized that the proportion of Pro models in total shipments cannot increase indefinitely. 

If Apple does not adjust its product and sales strategies, iPhone revenue could see a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline by 2026, Kuo said.

GORDON YANG