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Citi on Wednesday raised its oil price outlook for 2025 due to geopolitical risks centred on Russia and Iran, but noted prices were likely to ease through the second half of the year.
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"The oil outlook could see heightened, sustained geopolitical risks in Iran/Russia-Ukraine potentially wipe out the 2025 oil balance surplus, but the Trump administration appears intent on dealmaking," the bank said in a note.
Citi expects Brent crude to average US$67 (HK$522.6) a barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of US$62. It also said it was lifting its average WTI crude forecast to US$63/bbl, without giving its former view.
It added that it was revising up its quarterly Brent forecasts to US$75/bbl in the first quarter, US$68/bbl in the second, US$63/bbl in the third, and US$60/bbl in the fourth, also without specifying its previous expectations.
The Biden administration on January 10 sanctioned more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers, leading to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a global rush for ship supply as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought unsanctioned tankers.
US President Donald Trump has since laid out a sweeping plan to maximise oil and gas production, including declaring a national energy emergency to speed up permitting, rolling back environmental protections, and withdrawing the US from the Paris climate pact.
Citi said the timing and nature of President Trump’s actions regarding Iran and Russia could be defining features of the oil market and pricing during 2025. It forecast a surplus of 0.8 million barrels per day for the year.
(Reuters)
