The ex-president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, could soon become the first Asian former head of state to be tried at The Hague.

The populist politician was arrested on Mar. 11, 2025, after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant relating to his “war on drugs.”

Some 6,000-plus people were killed during the crackdown. But despite the controversy surrounding his policies and the end of his presidency in 2022, Duterte remains an influential figure.

The Conversation U.S. turned to Lisandro Claudio, an expert on Philippine politics and history at the University of California, Berkeley, to explain how the arrest could impact domestic politics and whether this could mean the end of Duterte’s sway.

What do we know about the arrest and charges?

The arrest warrant issued by the ICC states that Duterte is charged with crimes against humanity relating to events that happened between Nov. 1, 2011, to Mar. 16, 2019. This is important as it covers a period not just when Duterte was president but also when he was mayor of Davao City – the richest city in the island of Mindanao.

Duterte went on to serve as president from 2016 to 2022, but he pulled the country out of the Rome Statute, the treaty that set up the ICC, in 2019. Nonetheless, the ICC says the alleged crimes fall within their jurisdiction as they were carried out before the Philippines ended its relationship with the ICC.

Duterte is alleged to have overseen the systemic use of murder, torture and rape against civilians.

He is accused of acting as the de facto leader of the Davao Death Squad, a group that was responsible for summary executions and the murder or disappearance of more than 1,000 people in and around the city. But importantly, the prosecution is also of Duterte’s nationalization of the strategy of death squads. On coming to power, he incorporated the “war on drugs” into the policy of the national police.

Based on the way the ICC warrant was written and reporting in the Philippines, it appears that former members of the Davao Death Squad and police officers may be testifying for the prosecution including, it is thought, hitman-turned-whistleblower Edgar Matobato and ex-Davao City police officer Arturo Lascanas.

What role did the government play in the arrest?

Duterte’s arrest and rendition, for want of a better word, to the Netherlands appears to have taken place with the cooperation of the Philippine government.

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the man who succeeded Duterte, held a press conference following the arrest in which he explained that despite no longer being part of the Rome Treaty, the Philippines is committed to supporting the International Criminal Police Organization, or Interpol. And it was Interpol that asked Manila to enforce the warrant after receiving it from the ICC.

The indication from Marcos was that the Philippine government had no choice but to comply with Interpol for two reasons. First, it is the expected behavior of a democratic nation to comply with international norms, and second, Interpol has helped the Philippines arrest fugitives in the past – including former mayor and suspected Chinese spy Alice Guo.

In short, Marcos is saying it is in the national interest to comply with the ICC arrest warrant.

Is it in President Marcos’ political interests, too?

The Philippines can’t dictate to the ICC when to issue a warrant, or to whom.

And it appears ICC prosecutor Karim Khan requested the warrant on Feb. 10, so the timing wasn’t determined by Marcos.

But that isn’t to say that it isn’t fortunate timing.

There is an important midterm election in May, and Marcos is keen to use it to consolidate his power amid an ongoing feud with Vice President Sara Duterte – the daughter of the now-arrested former president.

In 2022, Sara Duterte and Marcos ran on same ticket for vice president and president. But this coalition between two family dynasties – Bongbong Marcos is the son of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos and still powerful matriach of the family, Imelda – broke down rather quickly.

Fighting between Sara Duterte and Martin Romualdez, the speaker of the House of Representatives and a cousin of President Marcos, strained the relationship.

But beyond the personality issues, there has been a divergence in policy between the Dutertes and Marcos. Notably, under Marcos Jr., the Philippines has pivoted back to the U.S. by allowing America troops back into the country and taking a more aggressive stance in regards to China in the South China Sea.

This approach has been challenged by the Duterte family, which has been closer to China. In the first year of the Marcos administration, Rodrigo Duterte served as a sort of envoy to Beijing, although it became increasingly clear that this was more of an independent relationship between the former president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

So could this be the end of Duterte’s influence?

That is certainly what President Marcos may be banking on.

The ICC prosecution of the father paired with a forthcoming impeachment of the daughter will neuter the Duterte clan’s power.

The reason this is so important for Marcos is that Sara Duterte has made it clear she wants to be the next president, and given the ill-feeling between the two, there is a widespread assumption that if in power she will go after various members of the Marcos family.

With Duterte busy defending his case in The Hague, he will be unable to focus his efforts on helping his senator choices get elected in the midterms. It will also, presumably, end his bid to return as mayor Davao City – a position that would give him a powerful bully pulpit.

No one should underestimate the charisma of Rodrigo Duterte; he is like a Donald Trump figure in that way. Many critics don’t fully understand the power of his charisma, his humor and the warmth that he displays to supporters – but it propelled him to high levels of popularity while in power.

And the public don’t see that charisma in his three children, including current Vice President Sara Duterte. Part of this is due to to sexism – there is a lot of sexism in Filipino politics, so people are more likely to support a brash-talking man like Rodrigo Duterte, compared with his daughter. And Sara Duterte has problems of her own – notably the impeachment charges relating to alleged corruption while she was secretary of education.

Could this lead to a more polarized politics?

Your guess is as good as mine here. In the short run, the arrest of Rodrigo Duterte is clearly very good for President Marcos. And the small scale of the pro-Duterte protests suggest no great uprising against the arrest.

But what happens next – and how it is reported – is crucial. Filipinos love a political martyr. We saw this when former President Joseph Estrada was arrested and prosecuted over stealing public money in 2001 – his mughshot was adopted by supporters around the country. The same could happen to Duterte – it could go both ways.

President Rodrigo Duterte speaks in front of housewives and mothers, that participate in the anti-illegal drugs campaign of the provincial government and Duterte's war on drugs at Clark Freeport Zone in Pampanga, Philippines December 22, 2016. REUTERS/Erik De Castro/ File Photo

A plane carrying former President Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague takes off from Manila, Philippines, on Mar. 11, 2025. AP Photo/Aaron Favila

Relatives of victims of drug war and extrajudicial killings hold LED candle lights during a mass following the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, in Quezon City, Philippines, March 11, 2025. REUTERS/Lisa Marie David

Arrest of ex-president Duterte will shake up dynastic politics in the Philippines – and hand initiative to rival Marcos family