Hong Kong form expert Luke Middlebrook takes a close look at Wednesday's Happy Valley meeting (January 28).
Horse to watch – R8 No 12 China Win
Time is short for China Win to qualify for the Derby, but he is shaping as a promising staying type for David Hayes.
After several be-on-me-next-time runs from wide draws, it finally clicked at Sha Tin last time when he broke through at the seventh attempt over 1,800m. From barrier 14, Zac Purton settled him back off a genuine tempo, swept wide on the turn, and had the race put to bed by the 300m before pulling clear to win by two and a half lengths.
A 13lb drop in the weights and barrier 4 set him up to go one better at Happy Valley, where he missed by a head two starts ago, and keep Hayes’ Derby plan moving.
Trainer to watch – Michael Chang Chun-wai
On a typically competitive Happy Valley card, Michael Chang Chun-wai heads in with a small team that could make an impact.
Chang has sent out nine winners from 172 runners this season and lines up just three tonight, but all are in the mix.
His standout runner is Straight To Glory, who broke through at his first try over this course and distance last time. The four-year-old had been building nicely at Sha Tin, and after drawing inside, he scored with a bit in hand by a length and a half.
Chang also saddles Fun Elite in Race 4, who resumes in a winnable race at his third start since the stable switch, while Super Joy N Fun looks better placed in the final race after drawing more favourably this time.
Jockey to watch – Derek Leung Ka-chun
Derek Leung Ka-chun has the kind of rides and draws to snap a 23-ride losing streak at Happy Valley tonight.
He links up with three of his main backers in Frankie Lor, Cody Mo and Michael Chang, and there are chances across the board.
Leung and Mo combine in Race 1 with Spicy Spangle, who drops into Class 5 for the first time and maps to lead from barrier 3 after a sharp trial win under Leung. They pair up again in Race 6 with Meowth, who finally draws well in barrier 1 after two runs from gate 12.
He rides for Chang in Race 3 aboard Straight To Glory, looking for back-to-back wins, then again in Race 4 with Fun Elite, who maps ideally from barrier 2 and caught the eye in a recent trial under Leung.
He rounds out the night in Race 8 on Lor’s Money Catcher, who broke a long drought last start – three years to the day since his previous win.
Best at the Odds - Race 2 No 8 Double Show
Trainer Brett Crawford has been getting quick results from stable transfers, and Double Show has backed that pattern up since joining him.
He lines up for his fourth start for the stable after winning on his second run, then returning from a short break to finish a close second.
Double Show switches to Happy Valley’s extended mile, still chasing a first win at the distance, but two placings from five tries reads well. A sharp trial win between runs has him ticking over nicely, and barrier 4 gives Lyle Hewitson a clean map.
The early quote around $7 fits an in-form runner who looks to have more to give.
Legitimate Favourite - Race 5 Number 11 Ace War
He may have failed to deliver as favorite last time out, but the market was right to have him on top, and Ace War gets his chance to make amends today.
Ace War has been building towards a win all season since the switch back to this course and distance with four placings from five. Three weeks ago he was beaten half a length into second when Zac Purton partnered him for the first time, and the run had its share of bad luck.
From barrier 4, Purton had him settled in the second half, then the run stopped twice, held up near the 400 meters and checked at the 350 meters as a runner in front gave ground.
Celtic Times had clear air and first run, while Ace War had to rebuild. Purton sticks and the speed map looks favourable, with a good tempo forecasted where Ace War should be in a conducive trailing position.
Avoid at the Odds - Race 6 No 5 Amazing Kid
Amazing Kid has finally put it together and two wins in a row says as much, but both came when he was overlooked at double-figure odds.
Those odds are a thing of the past and the market has adjusted. Barrier 2 and a good-looking map give him every chance to land the hat-trick, but he is no longer value at the top of the board.
There are more appealing odds elsewhere, including Meowth from barrier 1. He was only a head away in second to Amazing Kid two runs ago after a wide trip from barrier 12, and he gets every chance to turn the tables.
