Hong Kong racing expert Luke Middlebrook takes a close look at the Sha Tin meeting on January 4.
Horse to Watch - R11 No 6 Legend Winner
Luke Ferraris is no longer on Invincible Ibis, but Mark Newnham may still have a Classic Series path for him through Legend Winner.
Legend Winner was known as Magic Stalker in Australia, where he went three from three at the provincials at Tamworth, Scone and Kembla Grange, winning over 1400 metres and twice over the mile. That profile does not leap off the page, yet Tomodachi Kokoroe and Light Years Charm come to mind.
A pass-mark eighth on debut was a positive sign. He was beaten two and a quarter lengths by another Classic Series type Dazzling Fit in a slowly run race after getting away slowly, then meeting traffic in the straight. A much improved trial since suggests he has come on well.
Ratings-wise he has work to do in a short space of time, but a positive step forward today could bring Legend Winner into the Classic Series conversation.
Trainer to Watch - Frankie Lor Fu-chuen
Fresh off reaching his 500th Hong Kong winner, Frankie Lor Fu-chuen has carried a momentum-building December into January.
Derby hopeful Numbers and promising griffin Salon S announced themselves late in the month, then four-year-old Smart Golf provided a New Year’s Day winner to lift Lor to 16 wins for the term.
Lor saddles seven runners today and Race 10 shapes as a good opportunity through Australian import Loyal Bright.
Loyal Bright arrived unbeaten from three starts at Toowoomba and made his local debut at Happy Valley as a well-supported favourite, finishing a pass-mark fifth. Lor took him straight to Sha Tin second-up and, from barrier 11 and after copping a mid-race check, he kept finding late for third behind the in-form Aurora Patch.
Barrier 1 looks key today and provides the sort of map upgrade Loyal Bright can relish.
Elsewhere, Fun N Fun Together (R9 No 8) can run another honest all-weather race, Everyone’s Star (R11 No 2) gets his chance to land his first blow this season after three placings from as many starts, Mr Cool (R6 No 2) brings Zac Purton into the equation for the first time off a handy trial win, and One Man Show (R3 No 2) also arrives off encouraging trial work.
Jockey To Watch - Hugh Bowman
Hugh Bowman sits second in the jockeys’ championship, but the seconds column has been doing a lot of talking. Today shapes as the sort of card that could flip it.
Striking at 11 percent from 211 rides, Bowman’s second-place rate of 15 percent is the highest of any rider. He comes into today on a high after closing the New Year’s Day meeting with a win aboard Infinite Resolve in the final race, but it followed a second on the tricky Crossborderpegasus and back-to-back thirds prior to that.
Bowman has 10 rides across the programme and there is no shortage of chances to turn those placings into wins.
Sterling Wongchoy (R1 No 2), Thunder Prince (R4 No 6) and Flow Water Flow (R6 No 4) account for five of his 32 seconds this season, and Flow Water Flow shapes as a standout as the John Size-trained gelding gets the bigger Sha Tin track after two Happy Valley runs.
Bowman also links with premiership contender Caspar Fownes on a pair of intriguing class-droppers in Justifying (R2 No 3) and Monarch County (R5 No 1).
Best at the Odds - Race 4 No 6 Thunder Prince
Jamie Richards has Thunder Prince in good order since acquiring him and three placings from four runs suggests a win is not far away.
He was the subject of a late market push last time, backed into a $2.4 favourite, but he became held up inside the final 200 metres and finished eighth.
He comes up at close to three times the price early and that gap looks hard to ignore.
Legitimate favourite - Race 6 No 4 Flow Water Flow
Flow Water Flow is a progressive PPG arriving off back-to-back seconds for a John Size stable that is striking hot, and he is easy to make a case for at the head of the market.
He was not the typical flashy Size PPG at the trials prior to debut, but he showed up on race day, running a slashing first-up second when overlooked in the market and then backing it up with a similar performance, both over 1200 metres at Happy Valley.
The switch to Sha Tin, the rise in trip, and a map that looks to fall his way from a low draw are key to turning those seconds into a win.
Avoid at the Odds - Race 7 No 1 Sagacious Life
Debut Class 2 winners can be a trap for punters moving forward and that is the main reason Sagacious Life does not appeal at the pointy end of the market today.
The Brazilian import’s debut win at long odds was easy to like, but he did not back it up second-up in a run that was only fair. Zac Purton going on for a feel is likely to eat into the price that looks too short
For Luke's full selections and preview click here.
