U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August as the cost of gasoline rebounded after two straight monthly declines, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week.
The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. In the 12 months through August, consumer inflation advanced 3.4 percent after rising by the same margin in July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI increasing 0.4 percent over the month and climbing 3.4 percent year-on-year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3 percent last month after gaining 0.2 percent in July. The so-called core CPI increased 2.4 percent year-on-year in August after rising 2.5 percent in July.
The U.S. central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes for its 2 percent inflation target.
The government reported on Thursday an increase in the Producer Price Index in August, with strong rises in several key components that feed into the calculation of PCE inflation. That added to last week's robust employment report for August in boosting rate hike prospects next week.
The odds of a rate increase had diminished following comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker event last week that he was inclined to argue in favor of keeping rates steady if data confirmed inflation pressures were cooling.
Oil prices climbed back above US$100 (HK$780) a barrel on Thursday, while diesel prices are at record highs, suggesting inflation was set to remain elevated and broaden out.
Some economists saw price pressures persisting because of tariffs on imports, most recently against Canada, one of the United States' top trade partners.
Frustration over higher prices, especially for gasoline and food, has led to a sharp erosion in President Donald Trump's approval ratings and could cost his Republican party control of the U.S. Congress in the November midterm elections.
After Thursday's PPI data, economists' estimates for August's core PCE price index ranged from as low as a 0.15 percent gain to as high as a 0.28 percent increase. Core PCE inflation rose 0.2 percent in July. Estimates for the year-on-year increase in core PCE inflation ranged from 3.2 percent to 3.3 percent. Core PCE inflation advanced 3.3 percent in the 12 months through July.
The August PCE inflation report will include changes to the methodology, which some economists say could lower the core inflation rate by a couple of basis points.
Ahead of the CPI report, financial markets priced in a roughly 70 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 policy meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in a 3.50 percent-3.75 percent range.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last month said the central bank will "have work to do" if policymakers don't get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down to 2 percent.
But Trump is pressuring the Fed to cut rates, posting on social media last week "LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT." Economists have blamed what they called political intimidation for the surge in yields on long-term U.S. government bonds. Some expected the Fed to tighten policy next Wednesday to underscore its independence.
Reuters
