Gold could hit US$5,000 an ounce in first half of 2026, says HSBC

Gold prices could rise to US$5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026 on geopolitical risks and rising debt, HSBC said on Thursday.

However, the bank lowered its average 2026 price forecast for gold to US$4,587 an ounce from US$4,600, citing risks that rising prices could trigger a correction later in the year.

It added that this correction could be deeper should geopolitical risks subside or if the US Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates.

"We see a wide range of US$5,050-US$3,950/oz for 2026 and an end-year price of US$4,450/oz," HSBC said, adding that trade is likely to feature high volatility.

HSBC also raised its 2027 and 2028 average price forecasts to US$4,625 and US$4,700, from US$3,950 and US$3,630 respectively. The note flagged a 2027 year-end price view of US$4,600 and introduced a 2029 average price forecast of US$4,775.

Spot gold was trading near US$4,427.48 on Thursday after logging a 64 perecent annual gain in 2025, its biggest since 1979.

Reuters