Morgan Stanley raises China's 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.5pc

Morgan Stanley has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China by 50 basis points to 4.5 percent, in line with market expectations, due to a stronger-than-expected starting point and robust capital expenditure momentum. 

However, it noted that economic growth will begin to slow from the second quarter, impacted by US tariffs and counter-policy measures.

The bank also anticipates the exchange rate for the US dollar against the Chinese yuan to reach 7.35 yuan by mid-2025, and end the year at 7.50 yuan -- compared to the previous forecast of 7.60 yuan. 

This adjustment reflects the People's Bank of China's temporary policy trade-offs, prioritizing currency stability over domestic economic goals.

STAFF REPORTER