UK institute revises down deaths forecast to 36,000

Britain's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has posted revised – and significantly lower – forecasts for the number of deaths in the UK related to the coronavirus, the Guardian reports.

These new forecasts are the result of more data, with the numbers moving from 66,000 cumulative deaths to 37,000. The revised estimates fall within the range of the previous forecasts.

IHME said it saw fluctuations in its earlier estimates of US deaths, which have been revised to reflect increasing sources of data and the effects of physical distancing measures.

The new forecasts included four additional days’ worth of reported daily deaths for the UK (6, 7, 8, 9 April). The slower increase in daily deaths reported has led IHME to project a peak of 1,674 daily deaths (estimate range of 651 to 4,143) and 37,494 cumulative deaths (estimate range of 26,149 to 62,519) through the first wave of the pandemic.