Obesity to become huge problem for China, India

China, India and the US will have the world's largest populations of adults living with overweight and obesity by 2050, according to new research that highlights the global public health crisis and the potential for colossal economic losses.

Without drastic intervention, 3.8 billion adults over the age of 25 years will have overweight and obesity around the world by 2050 compared to 2.1 billion in 2021, researchers wrote in a paper published yesterday in The Lancet, noting how that will be more than half of the likely global adult population at that time.

Overweight and obesity are tied to higher risks of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers.

The increased disease burdens could translate into "staggering" economic ramifications, the researchers wrote, citing both direct health-care costs and indirect loss in productivity.

Forecasts suggest that, by 2035, the obesity epidemic could lead to a 2.9 percent reduction in global gross domestic product, equating to a loss of US$4 trillion (HK$31.2 trillion).

Around 627 million Chinese adults are projected to be overweight or obese by 2050, followed by 450 million in India, and 214 million in the US -- up from 402 million, 180 million and 172 million, respectively, in 2021.

On top of that, 746 million children and adolescents worldwide -- or a third of that population -- are projected to live with overweight or obesity by 2050, according to a second study.

The researchers made estimates based on existing data from 1990 to 2021 on body-mass index. The projected surge underscores the urgent need for preventative measures on multiple fronts, including changes in policies affecting food supply, built environments and lifestyle choices, they wrote.

In recent years, new pharmaceutical treatments for obesity -- particularly so-called GLP-1 drugs from Novo Nordisk A/S and Eli Lilly -- became a global phenomenon and commanded huge windfalls for their unprecedented ability to spur weight loss and mitigate other conditions tied to obesity. But the researchers said drugs alone are unlikely to be a sufficient remedy.

"Although new generation anti-obesity medications appear promising, tactful, whole-system, public health strategies will continue to be crucial to achieving widespread and sustainable impact," they wrote.

Bloomberg