Dynastic shake-up

Former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte could soon become the first Asian former head of state to be tried at The Hague.

The populist politician was arrested on Tuesday after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant relating to his "war on drugs" that killed 6,000-plus people.

Duterte served as president from 2016 to 2022, but he pulled the country out of the ICC in 2019. Nonetheless, the ICC says the alleged crimes fall within their jurisdiction as they were carried out before the Philippines ended its relationship with the ICC.

Duterte is alleged to have overseen the systemic use of murder, torture and rape against civilians. He is accused of acting as the de facto leader of the Davao Death Squad.

On coming to power, he incorporated the "war on drugs" into the policy of the national police.

Based on the way the ICC warrant was written and reporting in the Philippines, it appears that former members of the Davao Death Squad and police officers may be testifying for the prosecution.

So is this the end of Duterte's influence? That is what President Ferdinand Marcos Jr may be banking on. The ICC prosecution of Duterte, paired with a forthcoming impeachment of daughter Sara, the Philippine vice president, will neuter the Duterte clan's power.

The reason this is important for Marcos is that Sara Duterte has made it clear she wants to be the next president and there is a widespread assumption that if in power she will go after various members of the Marcos family.

With Duterte busy defending his case in The Hague, he will be unable to focus his efforts on helping his senator choices get elected in the midterms. It will also, presumably, end his bid to return as mayor of Davao City - a position that would give him a powerful bully pulpit.

ASSOCIATED PRESS