HK travelers steer clear of Japan amid earthquake rumor fears, dropping 33.4pc

Japan has reported record-breaking tourism numbers for the first half of 2025, with international visitor arrivals reaching 21.5 million—a 21 percent increase compared to the same period last year. 

However, official data reveals a surprising exception among major markets: Hong Kong has experienced a significant decline in travelers to Japan, with June arrivals dropping by a startling 33.4 percent.

The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) suggests this unusual trend may be linked to widespread anxiety in Hong Kong over an unsubstantiated earthquake prediction. 

The rumor, originating from Japanese manga artist Ryō Tatsuki, falsely claimed a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami would strike Japan on July 5, 2025, potentially surpassing the devastation of the 2011 Tōhoku disaster.

While other major markets like South Korea and mainland China maintained growth, contributing 4.8 million and 4.7 million visitors, respectively. Hong Kong became the only top source market to show a decline, with a 0.4 percent decrease in overall arrivals for the first half of the year. 

Notably, neighboring regions, including mainland China and Taiwan, continued to send increasing numbers of visitors to Japan, though at slightly reduced growth rates in June.

Japanese authorities have repeatedly attempted to reassure potential visitors, with the Japan Meteorological Agency emphasizing that current science cannot predict earthquakes with such specificity. 

Multiple airlines have adjusted their services in response to decreased demand, with Hong Kong Airlines and Greater Bay Airlines reducing or canceling some Japan routes since April. 

Even as HK Express launched a new seasonal route to Okinawa's Shimoji-shima in late June, the carrier acknowledged that advance bookings from Hong Kong travelers had noticeably slowed.

Industry experts remain optimistic about a quick recovery once the unfounded fears subside, noting that historical patterns show tourism typically rebounds rapidly after such temporary scares.