It came as no surprise that the minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine collapsed last Friday amid a war of words between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President J D Vance at the White House.

The Russia-Ukraine war has now evolved into a complex tussle between left and right factions in the West amid shifting dynamics between China, the United States, Russia and Ukraine.

Not everyone wants Trump to succeed. If he were to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin into a ceasefire and broker a peace deal after less than two months in office, left-wing European and American politicians who have spent the past three years trying to end the war might be seen as incompetent.

It could also reshape Sino-Russian ties. At last week's UN General Assembly meeting, both America and Russia voted against condemning Moscow's war against Ukraine while China abstained. As a result, Putin might believe it's easier to work with Trump than President Xi Jinping and Beijing would need to consider the potential impact of a Russian pivot from China.

Amid these complex scenarios, even if the agreement proposed by the United States guarantees Ukraine's future security, it is likely that others will offer counter proposals to Zelensky.

Left-wing politicians in Europe and the US are deeply resentful of Trump and there are many who continue to warn Zelensky that Trump can't be trusted.

However, no matter how much certain forces wish to see Trump fail, Ukraine is running out of military power and cannot do without US financial and military support.

Left-wing factions in Europe have over the past three years condemned Russia with words rather than actions.

Therefore, Ukraine still needs the United States and so the chances of a minerals deal remain quite high as well as the likelihood of a ceasefire.

That said, opposition from left wings in Europe and America towards Trump has become even more apparent following the White House meltdown.

At the same time, China seems to indicate that it will not leave much room for compromise with the Trump administration. This suggests that even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict is resolved, the global geopolitics will become even more complex.

Andrew Wong is a veteran

independent commentator

Zelensky has to go back to the table