HSBC full-year profit expected to fall 10.7 pc, fourth dividend to rise nearly 17 pc

HSBC (0005) is expected to report a 10.7 percent year-on-year decline in pre-tax profit for 2025 on Wednesday, while the fourth interim dividend is forecast to rise nearly 17 percent.

According to the company’s compiled consensus of broker forecasts, pre-tax profit for 2025 is estimated at US$28.86 billion (HK$225.11 billion). Full-year ordinary dividend is forecast at 72 US cents per share, implying a fourth interim dividend of about 42 US cents. Excluding the special dividend paid in 2024, full-year payout would increase about 9 percent.

Consensus estimates from three brokerages reported post-tax profit between US$22.3 billion to US$22.51 billion in 2025, down 10 percent to 10.8 percent from US$25 billion in 2025. Revenue forecasts from six brokerages put 2025 reported income between US$67.09 billion to US$67.93 billion, representing growth of 1.9 percent to 3.2 percent. 

For dividends, six brokerages forecast 2025 ordinary dividends per share in a range of 71 US cents to 74 US cents, compared with 87 US cents in 2024, implying a decline of 14.9 percent to 18.4 percent, with a median drop of 17.2 percent.

Cynthia ZHONG