Luke Middlebrook takes a look at the Sha Tin meeting set down for Sunday, January 25.
Best at the Odds - Race 2 No 5 Stormy Knight
It is the draw again for Stormy Knight. Barrier 14, which is why he is likely to be overlooked in the market.
He steps out for his third start and his second-up run was better than a 10th makes it look, a marked improvement on his first-up 11th. From the wide gate Hugh Bowman had little choice but to ease back. Stormy Knight still travelled into the race with purpose and looked set to finish closer before the gaps shut inside the final 200 metres. He went to the line untested, beaten only a length and three-quarters.
It is a similar task again from barrier 14 and luck will be required, but he is trending the right way and the price should reflect the draw. Whatever happens, keep him on the radar.
Avoid at the Odds - Race 5 No 9 Top Peak
Top Peak has come up around a similar quote to last start at $10, but the draw makes it harder to make the same case today.
From gate 7 he rolled forward, led until the 100 metre marker and stuck on for fifth. He is out in barrier 13 this time and there is pace drawn inside him, which leaves Karis Teetan with a tough call to make: either spend to get across, or take his medicine and ride for luck.
He has progressed across four runs for the Brett Crawford stable, but the price needs to drift to cover the map downgrade. At a similar quote, it is easier to make a case for the better-drawn runners such as Lucky McQueen or Golden Luck.
Legitimate Favourite - Race 9 Number 4 Patch Of Stars
A smart trial win between runs and a clear map upgrade point to Patch Of Stars bouncing back today.
Things did not fall his way last start when chasing a hat-trick. From barrier 9 he settled further back than usual, then from the 700 metres he was forced wide and without cover. He still kept finding late for fourth and it was a run full of merit.
Barrier 5 is the key change. The map looks far cleaner off a good tempo and he should land much closer in running. The market was right to be wary last time, but he makes sense on top today.
For Luke's full early analysis click here.
