INSIDE TRACK: harsh arithmetic of the Hong Kong jockey roster hits home

Keagan De Melo has announced he will end his Hong Kong stint for personal reasons on December 1, having started the season winless from 47 rides. His departure shifts the spotlight to David Probert and Richard Kingscote – the two remaining riders yet to salute – and the bad news for the embattled pair is that things are about to get even tougher.

The first two months have been tough going for Hong Kong’s three lowest-ranked jockeys – and the combined ledger before De Melo’s exit reads 0 from 207 starts. Let’s start by saying these are talented riders, and their struggles reflect a lack of opportunities in a brutally competitive environment currently dominated by Zac Purton. But however bleak those numbers look now, the near future looks even tougher, with superstar reinforcements arriving ahead of the International Jockeys’ Championship on December 10 and the Hong Kong International Races four days later.

Probert and Kingscote already looked despondent heading into Wednesday’s Happy Valley meeting, and then the first of the new arrivals, fellow Brit Hollie Doyle, promptly rode a winner. That alone would be worrying for the strugglers – Doyle’s high profile and light weight will bring strong support – but next Wednesday the man many consider the world’s best jockey, James McDonald, begins his short-term stint. Both Doyle and “J-Mac” ride through to December 23, and French ace Maxime Guyon, another proven Hong Kong performer, joins on November 30.

Leaving De Melo aside for the moment, the British duo Probert and Kingscote began what were intended to be full-time stays at the start of the season. Together, their stats after Wednesday are none from 160. The only place an English sports fan would want to see those numbers is on the scoreboard on day one of the Ashes – provided England is batting first.

Was Probert’s recruitment a touch too ambitious, given his lack of profile, and a case of overkill? Securing competitive rides in Hong Kong is a game of musical chairs at the best of times – but a 24-rider roster and a maximum field of 14 might be one, or two, too many. Perhaps officials were wary after last season’s horror day of falls in February left them short-handed and scrambling for fill-ins on short notice. 

Probert revealed to racing journalist Jim McGrath in the Racing Post that when approached by officials in June it was made clear a Hong Kong move was “now or never” after two previous offers. It left the Welshman facing a difficult call, with commitments at Goodwood and a Group 1 chance in the Prix Morny on August 27. That meant he was first available for trackwork just eight days before the season opened on September 7, with just five barrier trials and two gallops under his belt. In that sense, he has been up against it from the start. His rides have gone off at an average of $75 and a whopping 22 of them have started at triple figures or higher – with only two in single figures. Kingscote’s numbers are slightly better – an average of $55 and 13 runners at single-figure odds – but the immediate outlook isn’t bright.

De Melo’s hopes of staying had been fading – the stats told the story – and for a capable, popular and positive rider, that’s a shame. The squeeze at the top and the fight for survival at the bottom make the Club’s decision to block Caspar Fownes’ attempt to bring Joao Moreira back as a retained rider look prudent. Still, we may look back on this season and wonder whether the new faces struggling at the foot of the table were ever given a fair chance to show their best.