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Hong Kong’s private housing supply may show an initial increase – followed by a decline – from 2025 to 2029, with completions front-loaded in 2025 and 2026 when around 20,000 units could be launched per year, according to a report by Our Hong Kong Foundation.

The report anticipates the average annual completions of private residential units to be around 17,100 units throughout the five-year period.

From 2027 to 2029, the annual completion rate will gradually drop to around 15,000 to 16,000 units. For the 2030-2034 period, the average annual completion is expected to range between 15,400 and 19,900 units.

The report also forecasts that the city will record an average annual completion of 37,700 public housing units from 2025 to 2029, in line with the SAR government’s Long-Term Housing Strategy.

Hong Kong’s land sale market remains cautious, the report said.

Last year, the number of approved presale consent applications, the volume of superstructure commencements, and the estimated number of private housing land supply units all decreased. Moreover, with a growing awareness of development risks, the successful government land sale tender has continued to decline since the 2022/23 fiscal year, with land size and floor price also dropping, according to the report.

In response to the weak private land sale market and significantly extended development timelines, the report recommends that the authorities streamline the approval process and simplify land lease terms.

STAFF REPORTER

City's private housing supply to enjoy momentary increase