Over half of China C-Suite expects US tariff hike by end-2026: UBS survey

Over half of executive leaders of Chinese firms expected the US to raise tariffs on China by the end of 2026, compared with the 40 percent expecting a cut, UBS's survey showed on Monday.

The latest UBS China C-Suite survey was conducted from May to mid-June this year, spanning President Trump's visit to China and preceding the latest shift to Section 301 tariffs.

The survey also unveiled that about 57 percent of respondents estimated bilateral relations to deteriorate, while 12 percent of them expected an improvement.

A net 14 percent of exporters reported stronger orders year-over-year, reversing the net declines in previous surveys, while the share reporting a negative impact from US trade policy fell modestly, according to UBS.

Regarding the relocation, the survey found that 54 percent of manufacturers with meaningful external exposure are planning or evaluating offshore production, below the 77 percent peak in 2024. For now, nearly 80 percent of producers operate production outside mainland China, with over 40 percent of capacity and capex overseas. 

While US-China trade tensions have become less acute, survey respondents have grown more concerned about policy risks in Europe, Canada, Mexico and parts of Asia, the bank said.

Evidence from recent years suggests that policy measures are expanding beyond tariffs and traditional trade remedies, with local-content requirements, investment screening and procurement restrictions playing a larger role, UBS noted, citing the US's recent proposals concerning Chinese optical transceivers.

𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽 ↓