UBS expects no Fed easing this year; sees hawkish tone in June meeting

UBS Global Wealth Management pushed back its timeline for US Federal Reserve rate cuts to March and June 2027 and no longer expects any easing this year, citing expectations of a hawkish tone at this week’s policy meeting.

The wealth manager expects 25 basis point (bp) reductions each in March and June next year, compared to their previous forecasts of cuts in December 2026 and March 2027.

The Fed's policy decision is due on Wednesday—the first under new chair Kevin Warsh and policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady.

"Despite the new Fed chair's previously stated more dovish views, we expect a more hawkish tone to the Fed’s meeting, both in the central bank’s statement and in the dot plot," analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note dated June 15.

The Fed meeting also follows US President Donald Trump's announcement on Monday that the United States and Iran had reached a preliminary agreement to end their conflict, which has brought some relief to global financial markets.

"Leading central banks will avoid making a hasty pivot back toward more dovish language in response to the US-Iran deal," UBS said, with a string of central bank meetings slated this week, including the Bank of England.

"Instead, they (central banks) are likely to remain cautious as events unfold and as incoming data over the coming months reveals whether the energy shock is triggering second round inflation shocks."

Major global brokerages expect no Fed easing this year, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo being outliers.

Traders are betting on a roughly 42 percent probability for the Fed to hike rates by 25 bps in December this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Reuters

𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗔𝗽𝗽 ↓