Cooler winter may threaten China's gas supply: Morgan Stanley

China may face a natural gas shortage in five years as the coming winter is expected to be cooler than average, according to Morgan Stanley.

The US investment bank said that if La Niña conditions materialize, this winter could turn colder, leading to a potential sharp increase in natural gas consumption. 

Both wholesale and retail gas prices may rise, with winter demand growth potentially accelerating to 9 percent year-on-year, up from 2 percent in the summer.

The bank also noted that due to wholesale gas pricing reforms, lower import costs, increased retail participation, and structural demand growth, PetroChina (0857) will remain China's most attractive natural gas investment. 

If oil prices stay in the range of US$60 (HK$468) to US$65 per barrel, the company's natural gas business profits next year could be twice those of its oil business.