Hong Kong GDP growth to slow to 3pc in Q2: HKU

Hong Kong's economy is projected to grow at a moderate pace of 3 percent in the second quarter amid clouded rate cut expectations and the slowdown in China's economy, marking the lowest over the six quarters, according to a forecast by the University of Hong Kong. 

The city's economic growth is expected to slow to 3.3 percent in the first quarter, due to a higher base of comparison and uncertainty arising from the conflict in Iran, the APEC Studies Programme of the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the HKU said. 

The conflict in the Middle East has posed downside risks to the economic outlook, with global supply chains expected to face significant disruptions, and elevated energy prices will induce cost-push inflation, according to the report.

However, HKU said that robust investment in artificial intelligence-related products is expected to offset the negative geopolitical effects, bringing the full-year real gross domestic product growth for 2026 to 2.5 percent to 3 percent, in line with the government's estimate.