Long Covid is costing countries billions of dollars in lost productivity and increased health and social welfare costs, economists say.

The cost in the OECD – The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – alone runs into more than US$1 trillion (HK$7.8 trillion) a year.

Five years on from the start of the Covid-19 crisis, millions of people are struggling with debilitating health problems that have decimated their lives and livelihoods.

The first cases of long Covid were reported in May 2020.

However, a dearth of robust data, especially in developing countries, means the picture remains very unclear and research findings vary significantly.

Here are some estimates on the prevalence of long Covid and its economic burden:

Approximately 400 million people have been affected by long Covid since the beginning of the pandemic. Global estimates indicate that about 6 percent of people develop long Covid symptoms after infection, according to the World Health Organization.

More than 200 symptoms – extreme fatigue, breathlessness, brain fog, heart palpitations and joint pain – have been reported, but there is no universally accepted definition.

While some people are only mildly impacted and recover, studies indicate tens of millions may face years of impairment.

Health experts suggest up to 230 million people could be currently affected.

BRITAIN

An estimated 2 million people in England and Scotland – 3.3 percent of the population – had long Covid in early 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics.

About half had suffered symptoms for at least two years, and nearly a third – 732,000 people – for at least three years.

Three quarters said their symptoms affected everyday life. Nearly one in five - 381,000 people - reported a severe impact on daily activities.

Women are 20 percent more likely to report symptoms than men, according to the ONS data. Rates are also higher among the most deprived.

One study estimated long Covid cost the economy £5.7 billion (HK$55.48 billion) in lost productivity from 2022 to 2023, and valued the informal care by loved ones at £4.8 billion.

Some economists calculate that annual healthcare costs arising from long Covid could be about £4.2 billion by 2030 and suggest 46,000 extra healthcare workers are needed to support people with the condition.

UNITED STATES

About 6.4 percent of adults had long Covid in 2023, according to government estimates. About one in five report major limitations on daily life. Data from Canada paints a similar picture.

A 2023 paper published by the Brookings Institution think tank estimated long Covid may have cut the workforce by about 700,000 people. Other estimates have been much higher.

A 2022 study indicated long Covid may have already cost an estimated US$386 billion (HK$3.01 trillion) in lost wages, savings and medical bills, with 2.3 percent of the adult population suffering "disabling" symptoms.

Those with the worst symptoms are over seven times more likely to face eviction or foreclosure than people without long Covid.

AUSTRALIA

Academics estimated that about 100 million labor hours were lost in 2022 due to long Covid, costing the economy about A$9.6 billion (HK$46.97 billion), or a quarter of real gross domestic product growth.

But they said this was an underestimate as it did not include people who gave up work to care for others.

Up to 873,000 Australians could still be living with long Covid.

WORLDWIDE

An analysis by the Economist of eight countries suggested the economic cost of long Covid in 2024 ranged from 0.5 percent of GDP for Brazil, Spain, the United Kingdom and United States to 2.3 percent for Saudi Arabia.

The OECD, a club of mostly rich nations, estimates long Covid could be costing its 38 members U$864 billion to US$1.04 trillion annually due to reductions in quality of life and labor force participation. This does not include the extra burden on health services.

Across the European Union, long Covid impacted an estimated 2.9 percent of the population in 2022, reducing labor supply by 0.3-0.5 percent.

Studies suggest the health costs of treating people with long Covid could be on a par with other chronic conditions.

REUTERS

Covid has decimated the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. REUTERS

Long Covid drains trillions from global economy