Will John Lee Ka-chiu win Beijing's nod to let quarantine-free travel resume between Hong Kong and the mainland when he visits for four days on his first duty visit to the capital as the chief executive?

Many, including those involved in the retail sector, have high hopes for a major breakthrough during the visit.

Public expectation was elevated last week after media reports quoted various sources as saying a breakthrough was imminent and that largely normal travel - thus, free of hotel quarantine - could come as soon as Christmas or early January.

Curiously, Lee subsequently stated this could become a reality in 2023.

The chief executive was either trying to confirm the overall optimism but not the specific contents, or was simply trying to lower public expectation.

Lee may have been too cautious with his comment. In light of the speed at which the mainland is ending its zero or dynamic-zero Covid policy, Lee could have been confident in giving a time frame narrower than the whole of 2023.

If Beijing had been extreme in imposing lockdowns, it is equally aggressive in ending them.

If the course of events continues at the current pace, it will not need a whole year for quarantine-free travel to resume with the SAR.

Macau is probably offering the clearest sign so far. As the enclave is easing entry restrictions for people from Hong Kong, it is likely that our border with the mainland will reopen to relatively normal travel sooner rather than later.

Otherwise, Macau would unlikely take this risk since Hongkongers destined for the mainland could easily go around restrictions by way of Macau.

The question is: while it is impossible for Christmas, would early January be a target too soon to be practical?

It would be welcome if further easing at the border could be introduced in time for the Lunar New Year.

This is not about political will. When local residents in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are not prevented from emptying pharmacies of fever and flu medicines, it is clear that the authorities have abandoned the common control in anticipation of mass infection and, as a result, mass immunity.

It's all about practicality.

The border has been closed to normal travel for too long. Even if it reopens to quarantine-free travel, check points will still have to be manned properly for the border force to get familiar with the normal human flows again.

So, as business associations monitor Lee's visit for the next four days, they may anticipate progress but will likely be disappointed if they are expecting the door to open fully immediately or very soon.

Meanwhile, in view of the panic buying of paracetamol and fever drugs in the mainland, SAR officials should act in advance to place medicines such as Panadol under export control to ensure local supplies.

This is not without precedent. Didn't the government slap customs controls on infant formula some years ago in the face of huge demands from mainlanders?

Don't expect fast border breakthrough