IMF expects China's GDP to grow 4.5 percent this year

The International Monetary Fund said China's 2026 growth would reach 4.5 percent, down from a stronger-than-expected 5.0 percent performance in 2025.

It was 0.3 percentage point higher than October estimates. The upgrade reflects a 10 percentage-point reduction in US tariff rates on Chinese goods for a year as well as continued diversion of exports to other markets such as Southeast Asia and Europe.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that China risks running into more protectionist trade policies unless it develops a ‍more balanced growth model that relies less on exports and more on internal demand.

Reuters and staff reporter