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Natixis believes US President Donald Trump will “certainly” back down on his proposed 60 percent tariff on goods from China and be warmer toward the world’s second-richest economy in his new term.
As economic ties between the two superpowers are deep and Trump has a desire for more US influence globally, the bank reckons he has a grander plan for the Sino-US relationship but export controls and tech restrictions will continue to be two key issues.
“Trump is clearly looking for a grand bargain with China to which nobody else is invited. Europe, South Korea and Japan all lose out but Mexico is probably the biggest loser as the border and deportations have been the highlights of his inauguration,” Natixis Asia Pacific chief economist Alicia Garcia Herrero said.
Natixis said earlier that if Trump imposes a 10 percent tariff on other countries, Vietnam would be the most affected in Asia as it has the highest proportion of gross domestic product from exports to America, which was 22.8 percent in 2023.
China's GDP from exports to the United States is relatively low at 2.8 percent, despite being the largest exporter by value, the bank said.
JUNE CHEN

U.S. President Donald Trump and his wife First Lady Melania Trump attend the Liberty Ball on Inauguration Day of Donald Trump's second presidential term in Washington, U.S.

Natixis calls Trump's bluff on Chinese tariffs