Anthropic executives said the US government’s blacklisting of the AI firm could cut its 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars and cause reputational harm.
The company filed a lawsuit on Monday to block the Pentagon from placing it on a national security blacklist, escalating its high-stakes battle with the US military over usage restrictions on its technology.
Here is what its top executives said in federal court filings:
CFO KRISHNA RAO
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“Across Anthropic’s entire business, and adjusting for how likely any given customer is to take a maximal reading, the government’s actions could reduce Anthropic’s 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars.”
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If the government’s actions are allowed to stand, the impact to Anthropic would be “almost impossible to reverse”.
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Anthropic projects that hundreds of millions of dollars in 2026 revenue may be at risk related solely to work carried out for the Department of Defense.
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The actions could undermine investors’ confidence in Anthropic and will increase Anthropic’s costs to raise the funds it needs to operate.
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Anthropic could lose 50 percent to 100 percent in revenue from defense contractors and others with dependence on the Defense Department.
HEAD OF PUBLIC SECTOR THIYAGU RAMASAMY
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“The government’s actions immediately and irreparably harm Anthropic. The designation also impugns Anthropic’s integrity and reputation as a trusted partner, having a real but incalculable effect on sales to non-governmental customers.”
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Expect immediate loss of more than US$150 million (HK$1.17 billion) in annual recurring revenue tied to existing and expected Defense Department contracts.
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From December 2025 to January 2026, Anthropic saw a fourfold increase in annual recurring revenue run rate from public sector customers; business in the next five years was projected to increase to multiple billions.
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If defense contractors cut ties, the firm’s expected public sector annual recurring revenue of more than half a billion dollars in 2026 could “shrink substantially or disappear altogether”.
CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER PAUL SMITH
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A partner with a multi-million-dollar annual contract switched from Claude to a rival generative AI model for a US Food and Drug Administration deployment, eliminating an anticipated revenue pipeline of more than US$100 million.
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Negotiations with financial institutions worth roughly US$180 million combined have been disrupted, a US$15 million contract was paused, and one fintech customer cut a contract from US$10 million to US$5 million, saying the “situation” with the Pentagon made them unwilling to commit to spending more on Claude.
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Anthropic has received inquiries from more than 100 enterprise customers expressing “deep fear, confusion and doubt” about the repercussions of associating with the company.
Reuters
